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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from FTX.com, Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

GOP Nomination 2024GOP Nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2024

$1,969,032 bet so far

Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧44.2-47.2%$529,527$243,989
PredictIt 🇺🇸36.1-37.0%$1,192,253$240,725
Smarkets 🇬🇧44.6-47.6%$247,252$43,865

41.6%

-0.6%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧30.8-31.7%$529,527$243,989
PredictIt 🇺🇸33.3-34.3%$1,192,253$240,725
Smarkets 🇬🇧30.8-31.3%$247,252$43,865

32.4%

0.1%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧5.1-6.7%$529,527$243,989
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.6-5.6%$1,192,253$240,725
Smarkets 🇬🇧4.8-6.7%$247,252$43,865

5.5%

-0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧2.0-4.0%$529,527$243,989
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.6-5.6%$1,192,253$240,725
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.9-3.9%$247,252$43,865

4.0%

0.2%
Pompeo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-2.6%$529,527$243,989
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.8-3.7%$1,192,253$240,725
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.5%$247,252$43,865

2.8%

0.1%
TimScott details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.2-2.4%$529,527$243,989
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.8-3.7%$1,192,253$240,725
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.2-1.7%$247,252$43,865

2.4%

-0.0%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-2.1%$529,527$243,989
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.9-2.8%$1,192,253$240,725
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-2.1%$247,252$43,865

1.9%

+0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.8-2.0%$529,527$243,989
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.9-2.8%$1,192,253$240,725
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.9-1.4%$247,252$43,865

1.8%

-0.0%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.6-1.5%$529,527$243,989
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.9-1.9%$1,192,253$240,725
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.6-0.7%$247,252$43,865

1.2%

0.1%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.8%$529,527$243,989
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.9-1.9%$1,192,253$240,725
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-1.3%$247,252$43,865

1.2%

-0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-1.4%$529,527$243,989
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.9-1.9%$1,192,253$240,725
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.9%$247,252$43,865

1.1%

-0.0%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.8%$529,527$243,989
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.9-1.9%$1,192,253$240,725
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$247,252$43,865

0.9%

-0.0%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.6%$529,527$243,989
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.9-1.9%$1,192,253$240,725
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.6%$247,252$43,865

0.8%

-0.0%
RickScott details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$529,527$243,989
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.9-1.9%$1,192,253$240,725
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$247,252$43,865

0.8%

-0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-1.1%$529,527$243,989
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.4%$247,252$43,865

0.6%

-0.0%
Crenshaw details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.8%$529,527$243,989
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-50.5%$247,252$43,865

0.4%

+0.0%

0.7%




Books we like:

"No, They Can't"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"Random Walk"
By Burton Malkiel
"Radical"
By Maajid Nawaz
"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

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