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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of winning...

DEM Nomination 2024Democratic nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2024

$349,184,135 bet so far

Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎89.9-90.4%$239,556,741
PredictIt 🇺🇸87.9-88.8%$76,327,124
Betfair 🇬🇧94.3-95.2%$30,843,191
Smarkets 🇬🇧94.5-95.5%$2,474,848

92.1%

7.7%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.1-5.3%$239,556,741
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.8-5.8%$76,327,124
Betfair 🇬🇧2.0-2.2%$30,843,191
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-2.2%$2,474,848

3.6%

-2.4%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.8-1.3%$239,556,741
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.9-3.9%$76,327,124
Betfair 🇬🇧1.4-1.7%$30,843,191
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.2-2.0%$2,474,848

1.9%

-1.1%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.4-3.4%$239,556,741
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-1.9%$76,327,124
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$30,843,191
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.5%$2,474,848

1.2%

-0.2%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.3-0.4%$239,556,741
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-1.9%$76,327,124
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$30,843,191
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.6%$2,474,848

0.6%

-1.0%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.2-0.3%$239,556,741
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.1%$30,843,191
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$2,474,848

0.2%

-0.1%
Biden details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.0-0.1%$239,556,741
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$76,327,124
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.1%$30,843,191
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$2,474,848

0.1%

-0.4%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$76,327,124
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$30,843,191
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$2,474,848

0.1%

-0.5%

0.3%




Books we like:

"Give Me A Break"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"The Scout Mindset"
By Julia Galef
"Radical"
By Maajid Nawaz
"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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