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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from FTX.com, Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

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Chance of...

DEM Nomination 2024Democratic nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2024

$1,319,110 bet so far

Biden details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧25.3-27.0%$632,406$204,047
PredictIt 🇺🇸31.0-32.0%$585,543$197,159
Smarkets 🇬🇧25.3-27.4%$101,161$28,431

28.6%

-0.2%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧15.6-16.9%$632,406$204,047
PredictIt 🇺🇸17.0-18.0%$585,543$197,159
Smarkets 🇬🇧16.1-16.9%$101,161$28,431

16.9%

-0.9%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧13.9-14.3%$632,406$204,047
PredictIt 🇺🇸19.0-20.0%$585,543$197,159
Smarkets 🇬🇧13.9-14.3%$101,161$28,431

16.6%

0.3%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧6.5-7.4%$632,406$204,047
PredictIt 🇺🇸10.0-11.0%$585,543$197,159
Smarkets 🇬🇧6.9-7.1%$101,161$28,431

8.6%

-0.1%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧3.3-4.5%$632,406$204,047
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.0-7.0%$585,543$197,159
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.6-4.0%$101,161$28,431

5.1%

0.1%
Warren details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧2.6-4.3%$632,406$204,047
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$585,543$197,159
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.6-3.5%$101,161$28,431

3.5%

-0.0%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-2.6%$632,406$204,047
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$585,543$197,159
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-1.7%$101,161$28,431

3.1%

+0.0%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.6-2.2%$632,406$204,047
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$585,543$197,159
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.8-1.3%$101,161$28,431

2.3%

+0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-2.0%$632,406$204,047
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.7%$101,161$28,431

1.0%

+0.0%
Yang details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$632,406$204,047
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$101,161$28,431

0.2%

-0.0%

14.2%




Books we like:

"No, They Can't"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"Random Walk"
By Burton Malkiel
"Radical"
By Maajid Nawaz
"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

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