Odds update every minute | Last updated: 4:21PM EDT on May 12, 2024

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of winning...

DEM Nomination 2024Democratic nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2024

$39,565,592 bet so far
Biden details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎90.0-91.0%$22,391,099
Betfair 🇬🇧88.5-89.3%$10,518,191
PredictIt 🇺🇸86.0-87.0%$5,660,141
Smarkets 🇬🇧90.1-91.7%$997,036

89.2%

1.5%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$22,391,099
Betfair 🇬🇧3.3-3.4%$10,518,191
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.0-7.0%$5,660,141
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.8-3.9%$997,036

3.5%

0.2%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.6-1.9%$22,391,099
Betfair 🇬🇧1.8-2.3%$10,518,191
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$5,660,141
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.8-3.1%$997,036

2.4%

+0.0%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$10,518,191
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$5,660,141
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.4%$997,036

0.7%

-0.1%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-0.7%$10,518,191
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-0.8%$997,036

0.6%

-0.1%
Warren details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$10,518,191
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$5,660,141
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.6%$997,036

0.3%

-0.1%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$10,518,191
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$5,660,141
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$997,036

0.1%

+0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$10,518,191
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$997,036

0.1%

+0.0%

3.1%



Books we like:
"Give Me A Break"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"The Scout Mindset"
By Julia Galef
"Radical"
By Maajid Nawaz
"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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