Odds update every minute | Last updated: 6:58AM EDT on Apr 28, 2024

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of winning...

US Presidency 2024Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2024

$142,988,756 bet so far
Biden details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎44.0-45.0%$116,793,414
Betfair 🇬🇧42.4-43.1%$18,755,631
PredictIt 🇺🇸51.0-52.0%$4,549,632
Smarkets 🇬🇧43.5-44.3%$2,890,079

45.6%

-0.1%
Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎43.0-44.0%$116,793,414
Betfair 🇬🇧43.9-44.2%$18,755,631
PredictIt 🇺🇸43.1-44.1%$4,549,632
Smarkets 🇬🇧43.5-44.3%$2,890,079

43.8%

0.1%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.1-4.4%$116,793,414
Betfair 🇬🇧3.4-3.6%$18,755,631
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.6-3.6%$2,890,079

3.6%

0.1%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.7-4.8%$116,793,414
Betfair 🇬🇧2.5-2.8%$18,755,631
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.9%$2,890,079

3.1%

0.1%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.1-1.3%$116,793,414
Betfair 🇬🇧1.2-1.3%$18,755,631
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.9-3.9%$4,549,632
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.2-2.1%$2,890,079

1.9%

+0.0%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.4-0.5%$116,793,414
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-1.3%$18,755,631
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.6-1.3%$2,890,079

0.9%

-0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.3-0.4%$116,793,414
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-1.1%$18,755,631
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.9-1.3%$2,890,079

0.9%

-0.1%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.4-0.6%$116,793,414
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.4%$18,755,631
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$4,549,632
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$2,890,079

0.6%

-0.0%
Electoral College (estimate: 276-262. Hover over states)
270 electoral votes needed to win
State election odds update every 20 minutes. Last updated: 6:29AM EDT on Apr 28, 2024
Over $1M bet. State betting is from Polymarket. Others to be added if liquid state market available
GOP VP NomineeRepublican Vice Presidential Nominee in 2024

$21,251,722 bet so far
TimScott details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎21.0-22.0%$17,035,950
PredictIt 🇺🇸21.0-22.0%$3,474,932
Betfair 🇬🇧19.2-19.6%$664,136
Smarkets 🇬🇧18.2-20.8%$76,704

20.5%

+0.0%
Stefanik details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎8.0-9.0%$17,035,950
PredictIt 🇺🇸15.0-17.0%$3,474,932
Betfair 🇬🇧8.0-9.1%$664,136
Smarkets 🇬🇧7.1-10.2%$76,704

10.4%

0.7%
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.2-6.4%$17,035,950
Betfair 🇬🇧6.1-7.1%$664,136
Smarkets 🇬🇧6.1-8.0%$76,704

6.5%

+0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.8-3.7%$17,035,950
PredictIt 🇺🇸13.0-14.0%$3,474,932
Betfair 🇬🇧2.5-3.3%$664,136
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.2-3.7%$76,704

5.7%

0.9%
Carson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.4-5.1%$17,035,950
Betfair 🇬🇧5.6-6.5%$664,136
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.1-7.1%$76,704

5.6%

-0.1%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.0-6.0%$17,035,950
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$3,474,932
Betfair 🇬🇧4.5-5.0%$664,136
Smarkets 🇬🇧4.2-5.4%$76,704

4.6%

+0.0%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.2-2.6%$17,035,950
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.0-7.0%$3,474,932
Betfair 🇬🇧2.2-2.5%$664,136
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.8-2.9%$76,704

3.4%

0.1%
Donalds details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.4-1.6%$17,035,950
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$3,474,932
Betfair 🇬🇧2.3-2.9%$664,136

3.2%

0.2%

40.1%

Books we like:
"Give Me A Break"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"The Scout Mindset"
By Julia Galef
"Radical"
By Maajid Nawaz
"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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