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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from FTX.com, Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

DEM Nomination 2024Democratic nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2024

$424,317 bet so far

Biden details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸40.0-41.0%$219,954
Betfair 🇬🇧30.3-31.7%$182,429
Smarkets 🇬🇧30.3-32.3%$21,934

35.9%

-0.1%
Harris details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸31.0-32.0%$219,954
Betfair 🇬🇧29.0-31.3%$182,429
Smarkets 🇬🇧29.0-31.8%$21,934

30.8%

-0.4%
Buttigieg details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸8.0-9.0%$219,954
Betfair 🇬🇧3.7-5.6%$182,429
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.6-4.2%$21,934

6.6%

0.5%
Cortez details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$219,954
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-3.1%$182,429
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.5%$21,934

3.0%

0.2%
Clinton details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$219,954
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-2.6%$182,429

2.0%

0.1%
Warren details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$219,954
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-4.0%$182,429
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.7-3.1%$21,934

2.0%

-0.2%
Sanders details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$219,954
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-2.3%$182,429
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-1.7%$21,934

1.9%

-0.0%
Yang details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.8%$182,429
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-1.4%$21,934

1.0%

+0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.1%$182,429
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.7%$21,934

0.6%

-0.4%

16.3%

Presidency 2024Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2024

$14,606,535 bet so far

Trump details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
FTX 🌎27.2-28.6%$13,786,466
Betfair 🇬🇧18.2-18.9%$638,220
Smarkets 🇬🇧18.2-18.5%$173,726
PredictIt 🇺🇸28.0-29.0%$8,123

27.4%

-0.5%
Biden details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧20.4-20.8%$638,220
Smarkets 🇬🇧20.0-20.8%$173,726
PredictIt 🇺🇸29.0-30.0%$8,123

20.7%

0.5%
Harris details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧13.2-13.9%$638,220
Smarkets 🇬🇧13.2-14.7%$173,726
PredictIt 🇺🇸15.0-16.0%$8,123

13.6%

-0.7%
DeSantis details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧7.1-7.4%$638,220
Smarkets 🇬🇧6.9-7.4%$173,726
PredictIt 🇺🇸12.0-13.0%$8,123

7.3%

0.2%
Pence details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧4.5-5.1%$638,220
Smarkets 🇬🇧4.5-5.3%$173,726

4.9%

0.1%
Haley details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧4.2-4.5%$638,220
Smarkets 🇬🇧4.2-4.8%$173,726

4.4%

-0.3%
Buttigieg details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧2.3-2.6%$638,220
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.3-2.6%$173,726

2.5%

+0.0%
Warren details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧1.4-2.0%$638,220
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-1.8%$173,726

1.7%

-0.0%
Pompeo details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧1.4-1.8%$638,220
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-1.8%$173,726

1.6%

-0.1%
Carlson details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-1.5%$638,220
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-1.5%$173,726

1.4%

-0.0%
Noem details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-1.5%$638,220
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-1.5%$173,726

1.4%

-0.0%
Cruz details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.8-1.3%$638,220
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.1-1.3%$173,726

1.1%

0.3%
Hawley details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.7-1.2%$638,220
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-1.1%$173,726

0.9%

-0.0%
Cotton details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-0.9%$638,220
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.6-0.9%$173,726

0.7%

+0.0%
Cortez details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-0.9%$638,220
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.6-0.8%$173,726

0.7%

+0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.6-0.8%$638,220
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.6-0.8%$173,726

0.7%

-0.0%
Trump_Jr details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.8%$638,220
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-0.8%$173,726

0.6%

-0.0%
Obama details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.8%$638,220
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.7%$173,726

0.5%

+0.0%
Rubio details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.6%$638,220
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$173,726

0.3%

+0.0%
Sanders details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.6%$638,220
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$173,726

0.3%

0.1%
Cuomo details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$638,220
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$173,726

0.2%

-0.0%

7.3%

GOP Nomination 2024GOP Nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2024

$889,278 bet so far

Trump details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸36.5-37.4%$729,331
Betfair 🇬🇧35.7-38.5%$127,198
Smarkets 🇬🇧35.7-39.4%$32,749

37.0%

-0.4%
DeSantis details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸19.2-21.0%$729,331
Betfair 🇬🇧14.3-16.7%$127,198
Smarkets 🇬🇧14.3-16.7%$32,749

19.3%

1.0%
Haley details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.4-7.3%$729,331
Betfair 🇬🇧8.7-10.6%$127,198
Smarkets 🇬🇧8.3-10.6%$32,749

7.3%

-0.2%
Pence details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.7-4.6%$729,331
Betfair 🇬🇧6.7-8.7%$127,198
Smarkets 🇬🇧6.7-7.7%$32,749

4.7%

0.2%
Cruz details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.7-4.6%$729,331
Betfair 🇬🇧2.8-3.8%$127,198
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.8-4.0%$32,749

4.0%

-0.0%
Pompeo details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.7-4.6%$729,331
Betfair 🇬🇧2.6-3.7%$127,198
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.6-3.5%$32,749

3.9%

-0.0%
Noem details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.7-4.6%$729,331
Betfair 🇬🇧1.4-3.1%$127,198
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.7-2.9%$32,749

3.8%

-0.2%
TimScott details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.7-4.6%$729,331
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-19.6%$127,198
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.0-1.7%$32,749

3.4%

-0.2%
Hawley details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.7-3.7%$729,331
Betfair 🇬🇧2.5-2.9%$127,198
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.5-2.9%$32,749

3.1%

0.7%
Cotton details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.7-3.7%$729,331
Betfair 🇬🇧2.0-2.9%$127,198
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.3-3.3%$32,749

3.1%

-0.0%
Carlson details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.8-2.7%$729,331
Betfair 🇬🇧2.9-3.6%$127,198
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.8-3.6%$32,749

2.5%

-0.8%
Rubio details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.8-2.7%$729,331
Betfair 🇬🇧1.0-2.9%$127,198
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.0-2.0%$32,749

2.2%

-0.0%
Trump_Jr details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.8-2.7%$729,331
Betfair 🇬🇧0.4-1.3%$127,198
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-1.3%$32,749

2.0%

-0.0%
RickScott details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.8-2.7%$729,331
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-3.3%$127,198
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-1.0%$32,749

1.9%

-0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-2.0%$127,198
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.5-2.1%$32,749

1.2%

+0.0%
Crenshaw details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.7%$127,198
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-1.2%$32,749

0.8%

-0.0%

Books we like:

"No, They Can't"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"Random Walk"
By Burton Malkiel
"Radical"
By Maajid Nawaz
"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

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About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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