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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from FTX.com, Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

US Presidency
2024Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2024

$16,283,650 bet so far
Trump details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
FTX 🌎41.0-42.6%$14,295,103
Betfair 🇬🇧25.6-26.0%$1,208,914
Smarkets 🇬🇧25.6-26.0%$726,829
PredictIt 🇺🇸29.0-30.0%$52,803

39.9%

1.4%
Biden details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧15.2-15.6%$1,208,914
Smarkets 🇬🇧15.6-16.1%$726,829
PredictIt 🇺🇸23.0-24.0%$52,803

15.8%

-0.2%
DeSantis details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧13.2-13.5%$1,208,914
Smarkets 🇬🇧12.8-13.5%$726,829
PredictIt 🇺🇸23.0-24.0%$52,803

13.5%

-0.3%
Harris details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧6.1-6.7%$1,208,914
Smarkets 🇬🇧6.3-6.9%$726,829
PredictIt 🇺🇸9.0-10.0%$52,803

6.5%

0.1%
Pence details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧4.2-4.8%$1,208,914
Smarkets 🇬🇧4.2-4.8%$726,829

4.5%

-0.1%
Haley details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧3.3-3.8%$1,208,914
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.6-3.9%$726,829

3.6%

-0.0%
Buttigieg details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧2.9-3.3%$1,208,914
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.9-3.3%$726,829

3.1%

-0.0%
Warren details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧1.5-2.3%$1,208,914
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.8-2.4%$726,829

2.0%

-0.0%
Obama details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-2.8%$1,208,914
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-2.2%$726,829

1.9%

0.1%
Carlson details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧1.0-1.4%$1,208,914
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.0-1.3%$726,829

1.2%

-0.0%
Pompeo details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.7-1.4%$1,208,914
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-1.4%$726,829

1.2%

-0.4%
Noem details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.7-0.9%$1,208,914
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-0.9%$726,829

0.8%

-0.0%
Cotton details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-0.9%$1,208,914
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-0.8%$726,829

0.7%

+0.0%
Cruz details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.1%$1,208,914
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-1.0%$726,829

0.7%

-0.2%
I_Trump details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.6-0.7%$1,208,914
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.6-0.8%$726,829

0.7%

-0.0%
Cortez details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.1%$1,208,914
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.9%$726,829

0.6%

+0.0%
Sanders details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.4-0.7%$1,208,914
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-0.6%$726,829

0.6%

+0.0%
Hawley details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.0%$1,208,914
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.6%$726,829

0.5%

-0.0%
Rubio details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.7%$1,208,914
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.6%$726,829

0.4%

+0.0%
Trump_Jr details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$1,208,914
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.5%$726,829

0.3%

-0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,208,914
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$726,829

0.2%

+0.0%

1.4%
Senate Control
2022Bets on which party will control the Senate after Nov 8, 2022 elections

$251,561 bet so far
REP details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸73.5-74.5%$221,121
Polymarket 🌎74.0-76.0%$23,529
Smarkets 🇬🇧73.5-76.3%$6,911

74.1%

+0.0%
DEM details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸25.5-26.5%$221,121
Polymarket 🌎24.0-26.0%$23,529
Smarkets 🇬🇧23.3-26.3%$6,911

25.9%

-0.0%
House Control 2022Bets on which party will control the House after Nov 8, 2022 elections

$438,333 bet so far
REP details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸83.3-84.3%$406,144
Polymarket 🌎88.0-90.0%$22,927
Smarkets 🇬🇧83.3-86.2%$9,262

84.1%

-0.7%
DEM details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸15.7-16.7%$406,144
Polymarket 🌎10.0-12.0%$22,927
Smarkets 🇬🇧13.9-16.7%$9,262

15.9%

0.7%
Putin Still President
of 🇷🇺 at end of 2022?Will Vladimir Putin remain president of Russia through 2022? PredictIt's full rules: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Vladimir Putin holds the office of President of Russia without interruption until the End Date listed below.
PredictIt shall rely upon the Central Intelligence Agency's World Factbook, located upon launch of this market at https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/ (the "Settlement Source"), in order to resolve this market.
PredictIt's decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt's sole discretion and shall be final.

$381,969 bet so far
PutinStays details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸74.0-75.0%$225,190
Polymarket 🌎81.0-83.0%$156,779

77.6%

-2.2%
PutinGone details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸25.0-26.0%$225,190
Polymarket 🌎17.0-19.0%$156,779

22.4%

2.2%

Books we like:
"No, They Can't"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"Random Walk"
By Burton Malkiel
"Radical"
By Maajid Nawaz
"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

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About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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