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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from FTX.com, Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

US Presidency
2024
Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2024

$17,390,170 bet so far

Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
FTX 🌎41.4-42.6%$14,846,376$607,127
Betfair 🇬🇧21.7-22.7%$1,581,961$393,398
Smarkets 🇬🇧21.7-22.7%$885,698$191,271
PredictIt 🇺🇸28.0-29.0%$76,144$24,568

32.2%

+0.0%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧20.8-21.3%$1,581,961$393,398
Smarkets 🇬🇧20.8-21.3%$885,698$191,271
PredictIt 🇺🇸27.0-28.0%$76,144$24,568

21.3%

0.1%
Biden details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧10.9-11.6%$1,581,961$393,398
Smarkets 🇬🇧11.1-11.9%$885,698$191,271
PredictIt 🇺🇸19.0-20.0%$76,144$24,568

11.7%

0.2%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧6.1-6.7%$1,581,961$393,398
Smarkets 🇬🇧6.1-6.7%$885,698$191,271

6.4%

0.1%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧5.3-6.1%$1,581,961$393,398
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.6-5.7%$885,698$191,271
PredictIt 🇺🇸9.0-10.0%$76,144$24,568

5.8%

0.3%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧3.4-4.2%$1,581,961$393,398
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.7-4.0%$885,698$191,271

3.8%

+0.0%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧2.6-3.6%$1,581,961$393,398
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.6-3.3%$885,698$191,271

3.1%

-0.2%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧2.0-2.9%$1,581,961$393,398
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.9%$885,698$191,271

2.5%

0.3%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.4-2.2%$1,581,961$393,398
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.8-2.2%$885,698$191,271

1.9%

-0.2%
Warren details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-1.7%$1,581,961$393,398
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-1.5%$885,698$191,271

1.4%

+0.0%
Pompeo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.0-1.7%$1,581,961$393,398
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.0-1.5%$885,698$191,271

1.3%

0.3%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.6-1.1%$1,581,961$393,398
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-1.1%$885,698$191,271

0.8%

-0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.7-0.9%$1,581,961$393,398
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-0.8%$885,698$191,271

0.8%

+0.0%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.4-1.0%$1,581,961$393,398
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-0.8%$885,698$191,271

0.7%

0.1%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-1.0%$1,581,961$393,398
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.6%$885,698$191,271

0.6%

+0.0%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.3%$1,581,961$393,398
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$885,698$191,271

0.6%

-0.0%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.0%$1,581,961$393,398
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.4%$885,698$191,271

0.5%

-0.0%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.9%$1,581,961$393,398
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.6%$885,698$191,271

0.5%

-0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.7%$1,581,961$393,398
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.6%$885,698$191,271

0.5%

+0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.6%$1,581,961$393,398
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$885,698$191,271

0.3%

+0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,581,961$393,398
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$885,698$191,271

0.2%

-0.0%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$1,581,961$393,398
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$885,698$191,271

0.2%

-0.0%

3.1%




Books we like:

"No, They Can't"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"Random Walk"
By Burton Malkiel
"Radical"
By Maajid Nawaz
"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

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About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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