Odds update every minute | Last updated: 9:41PM EDT on Sep 09, 2024

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of winning...

US Presidency 2024Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2024

$971,466,862 bet so far
Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎52.2-52.3%$848,223,721
Betfair 🇬🇧52.1-52.4%$80,351,130
PredictIt 🇺🇸48.1-49.0%$36,349,608
Smarkets 🇬🇧50.8-52.1%$6,542,408

51.1%

0.3%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎45.9-46.0%$848,223,721
Betfair 🇬🇧45.5-45.9%$80,351,130
PredictIt 🇺🇸48.1-49.0%$36,349,608
Smarkets 🇬🇧46.3-47.6%$6,542,408

46.8%

-0.4%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.1-0.2%$848,223,721
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$80,351,130
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.9-1.9%$36,349,608
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$6,542,408

0.5%

-0.0%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.0-0.1%$848,223,721
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$80,351,130
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.9-1.9%$36,349,608
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$6,542,408

0.4%

+0.0%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.2-0.3%$848,223,721
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.4%$80,351,130
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.4%$6,542,408

0.3%

0.1%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.2-0.3%$848,223,721
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.2%$80,351,130
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$6,542,408

0.2%

-0.0%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.1-0.2%$848,223,721
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.2%$80,351,130
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$6,542,408

0.2%

+0.0%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.0-0.1%$848,223,721
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$80,351,130
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$6,542,408

0.1%

+0.0%

0.4%
Electoral Votes 2024 (estimate: 251-287. Hover over states)
270 electoral votes needed to win
State election odds update every 20 minutes. Last updated: 9:02PM EDT on Sep 09, 2024
Over $5 million bet. State betting is from Polymarket. Others to be added if liquid state market available.
House Control 2024House Control 2024

$607,526 bet so far
DEM details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎61.0-62.0%$607,526

61.5%

+0.0%
REP details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎38.0-39.0%$607,526

38.5%

+0.0%

Books we like:
"Give Me A Break"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"The Scout Mindset"
By Julia Galef
"Radical"
By Maajid Nawaz
"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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