Odds update every minute | Last updated: 4:23PM EDT on May 18, 2024

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of winning...

US Presidency 2024Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2024

$157,138,283 bet so far

Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎50.5-51.5%$128,213,090
Betfair 🇬🇧51.5-52.1%$21,149,037
PredictIt 🇺🇸48.3-49.3%$4,723,688
Smarkets 🇬🇧50.8-52.1%$3,053,238

50.7%

0.3%
Biden details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎40.6-41.6%$128,213,090
Betfair 🇬🇧36.8-37.0%$21,149,037
PredictIt 🇺🇸46.3-47.3%$4,723,688
Smarkets 🇬🇧37.6-38.5%$3,053,238

40.7%

-1.1%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.9-2.3%$128,213,090
Betfair 🇬🇧2.2-2.4%$21,149,037
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.2-2.5%$3,053,238

2.2%

-0.1%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.9-3.2%$128,213,090
Betfair 🇬🇧1.8-2.0%$21,149,037
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-2.0%$3,053,238

2.2%

0.1%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.0-1.2%$128,213,090
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-1.3%$21,149,037
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.9%$4,723,688
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.1-1.3%$3,053,238

1.6%

0.1%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.4-0.5%$128,213,090
Betfair 🇬🇧1.2-1.3%$21,149,037
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-1.2%$3,053,238

0.9%

+0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.2-0.3%$128,213,090
Betfair 🇬🇧0.8-0.9%$21,149,037
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.8-1.1%$3,053,238

0.7%

+0.0%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.4-0.8%$128,213,090
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$21,149,037
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$4,723,688
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$3,053,238

0.6%

+0.0%

0.4%

Electoral College (estimate: 270-268. Hover over states)
270 electoral votes needed to win
State election odds update every 20 minutes. Last updated: 3:41PM EDT on May 18, 2024
Over $1M bet. State betting is from Polymarket. Others to be added if liquid state market available
GOP VP NomineeRepublican Vice Presidential Nominee in 2024

$27,806,999 bet so far

TimScott details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎17.0-19.0%$22,673,312
PredictIt 🇺🇸22.0-23.0%$4,256,333
Betfair 🇬🇧15.2-16.1%$793,460
Smarkets 🇬🇧13.9-17.2%$83,894

17.9%

+0.0%
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎11.3-12.8%$22,673,312
Betfair 🇬🇧12.8-13.2%$793,460
Smarkets 🇬🇧12.8-14.3%$83,894

12.9%

-0.6%
Stefanik details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.0-6.0%$22,673,312
PredictIt 🇺🇸8.0-10.0%$4,256,333
Betfair 🇬🇧5.1-5.4%$793,460
Smarkets 🇬🇧4.5-5.9%$83,894

6.2%

0.1%
Carson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.1-3.8%$22,673,312
Betfair 🇬🇧4.0-4.2%$793,460
Smarkets 🇬🇧4.2-4.8%$83,894

4.0%

-0.4%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.3-6.9%$22,673,312
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$4,256,333
Betfair 🇬🇧1.4-2.5%$793,460
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-2.8%$83,894

3.7%

0.6%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.2-3.4%$22,673,312
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$4,256,333
Betfair 🇬🇧1.8-3.4%$793,460
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.5-3.9%$83,894

2.9%

0.4%
Donalds details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-1.3%$22,673,312
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$4,256,333
Betfair 🇬🇧1.7-2.3%$793,460

2.1%

0.2%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.5-3.6%$22,673,312
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-1.3%$793,460

1.9%

-0.0%

48.4%


Books we like:

"Give Me A Break"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"The Scout Mindset"
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"Radical"
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"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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