Odds update every minute | Last updated: 5:03AM EDT on Apr 19, 2024

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of winning...

US Presidency 2024Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2024

$139,269,124 bet so far
Biden details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎44.0-45.0%$113,801,515
Betfair 🇬🇧42.0-42.4%$18,107,264
PredictIt 🇺🇸51.0-52.0%$4,480,245
Smarkets 🇬🇧43.1-44.3%$2,865,007

45.5%

0.1%
Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎42.0-43.0%$113,801,515
Betfair 🇬🇧43.5-43.9%$18,107,264
PredictIt 🇺🇸43.1-44.1%$4,480,245
Smarkets 🇬🇧43.1-43.5%$2,865,007

43.3%

-0.5%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.2-4.7%$113,801,515
Betfair 🇬🇧3.3-3.4%$18,107,264
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.9-3.3%$2,865,007

3.7%

-0.0%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.5-2.0%$113,801,515
Betfair 🇬🇧3.1-3.4%$18,107,264
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.3-3.3%$2,865,007

2.6%

0.2%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.3%$113,801,515
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-1.3%$18,107,264
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.9-3.9%$4,480,245
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-2.1%$2,865,007

1.9%

+0.0%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.3-0.4%$113,801,515
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-1.4%$18,107,264
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.0-1.1%$2,865,007

0.9%

-0.1%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.3-0.5%$113,801,515
Betfair 🇬🇧0.9-1.1%$18,107,264
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.0-1.3%$2,865,007

0.8%

-0.0%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.5-0.6%$113,801,515
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.4%$18,107,264
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$4,480,245
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$2,865,007

0.6%

-0.0%

0.7%
Electoral College (estimate: 276-262. Hover over states)
270 electoral votes needed to win
State election odds update every 20 minutes. Last updated: 4:48AM EDT on Apr 19, 2024
Over $1M bet. State betting is from Polymarket. Others to be added if liquid state market available
GOP VP NomineeRepublican Vice Presidential Nominee in 2024

$20,108,264 bet so far
TimScott details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎21.0-22.0%$16,023,529
PredictIt 🇺🇸22.0-23.0%$3,380,077
Betfair 🇬🇧18.5-19.2%$632,788
Smarkets 🇬🇧17.5-20.0%$71,361

20.4%

0.2%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎9.0-10.0%$16,023,529
PredictIt 🇺🇸18.0-19.0%$3,380,077
Betfair 🇬🇧6.5-9.1%$632,788
Smarkets 🇬🇧6.9-10.2%$71,361

11.1%

0.1%
Stefanik details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎6.0-7.0%$16,023,529
PredictIt 🇺🇸10.0-11.0%$3,380,077
Betfair 🇬🇧5.4-5.7%$632,788
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.0-6.3%$71,361

7.0%

0.2%
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.1-6.4%$16,023,529
Betfair 🇬🇧6.1-6.5%$632,788
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.6-7.1%$71,361

6.1%

+0.0%
Carson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.6-5.2%$16,023,529
Betfair 🇬🇧4.8-5.9%$632,788
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.1-6.3%$71,361

5.3%

0.1%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.0-5.0%$16,023,529
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$3,380,077
Betfair 🇬🇧4.5-5.4%$632,788
Smarkets 🇬🇧4.0-5.7%$71,361

4.7%

+0.0%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.7-3.0%$16,023,529
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$3,380,077
Betfair 🇬🇧3.7-4.5%$632,788
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.5-5.1%$71,361

3.9%

+0.0%
Donalds details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.4-1.6%$16,023,529
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$3,380,077
Betfair 🇬🇧2.3-2.9%$632,788

2.9%

-0.0%

38.5%

Books we like:
"Give Me A Break"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"The Scout Mindset"
By Julia Galef
"Radical"
By Maajid Nawaz
"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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