Odds update every minute | Last updated: 2:31PM EDT on Mar 21, 2026

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

Senate Control 2026Senate Control 2026

$3,836,580 bet so far
DEM details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸49.0-50.0%$2,574,830
Polymarket 🌎49.0-50.0%$1,035,615
PredictIt 🇺🇸44.8-46.8%$199,505
Betfair 🇬🇧47.6-51.5%$22,216
Smarkets 🇬🇧100.0-130.4%$4,717

58.9%

8.9%
REP details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸50.0-51.0%$2,574,830
Polymarket 🌎50.0-51.0%$1,035,615
PredictIt 🇺🇸53.7-54.7%$199,505
Betfair 🇬🇧48.5-52.3%$22,216
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-134.1%$4,717

41.1%

-8.9%
Senate Seats 2026 (estimate: 51-49. Hover over states)
270 electoral votes needed to win
Polymarket:
Kalshi:
PredictIt:
State election odds update every 20 minutes. Last updated: 2:23PM EDT on Mar 21, 2026
Over $5 million bet. State betting is from Polymarket, Kalshi and PredictIt. Others to be added if liquid state market available.
US Presidency 2028Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2028

$450,843,336 bet so far
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎18.2-18.3%$435,378,464
Kalshi 🇺🇸19.0-20.0%$13,320,984
Betfair 🇬🇧19.2-20.0%$1,076,038
PredictIt 🇺🇸24.0-25.0%$887,655
Smarkets 🇬🇧15.6-100.0%$191,096

19.5%

-0.6%
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎19.9-20.0%$435,378,464
Kalshi 🇺🇸18.0-19.0%$13,320,984
Betfair 🇬🇧18.2-18.9%$1,076,038
PredictIt 🇺🇸23.0-24.0%$887,655
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-21.7%$191,096

16.1%

-4.0%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎12.1-12.3%$435,378,464
Kalshi 🇺🇸15.0-16.0%$13,320,984
Betfair 🇬🇧9.5-11.4%$1,076,038
PredictIt 🇺🇸16.0-17.0%$887,655

13.7%

-0.5%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.7-4.8%$435,378,464
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$13,320,984
Betfair 🇬🇧3.7-5.0%$1,076,038
PredictIt 🇺🇸9.0-10.0%$887,655
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.0-6.7%$191,096

5.8%

-0.1%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.5-2.6%$435,378,464
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$13,320,984
Betfair 🇬🇧2.2-2.3%$1,076,038
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$887,655
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.6%$191,096

3.0%

-0.2%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.0-3.1%$435,378,464
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$13,320,984
Betfair 🇬🇧1.8-2.3%$1,076,038
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$887,655
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.2-2.5%$191,096

2.9%

-0.2%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧2.5-3.1%$1,076,038
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-100.0%$191,096

2.4%

-0.1%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.9-2.0%$435,378,464
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$13,320,984
Betfair 🇬🇧1.7-2.3%$1,076,038
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$887,655
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-2.4%$191,096

2.2%

-0.3%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$435,378,464
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$13,320,984
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-2.5%$1,076,038
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-4.0%$887,655
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.3%$191,096

2.0%

-0.1%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.5-1.6%$435,378,464
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$13,320,984
Betfair 🇬🇧1.4-1.7%$1,076,038
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.4-1.8%$191,096

1.6%

-0.2%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.8-0.9%$435,378,464
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$13,320,984
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-1.8%$1,076,038
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-2.2%$191,096

1.2%

-0.2%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.8-1.1%$1,076,038
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.6-0.8%$191,096

0.8%

-0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.7%$1,076,038
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-1.4%$191,096

0.8%

-0.5%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$435,378,464
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$13,320,984
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.1%$1,076,038
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-1.0%$191,096

0.5%

-0.0%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.7%$1,076,038
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.6%$191,096

0.5%

-0.1%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.1-1.2%$435,378,464
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$13,320,984
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$1,076,038
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$191,096

0.4%

-0.0%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.8%$1,076,038
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.6%$191,096

0.4%

+0.0%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.6%$1,076,038
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.4%$191,096

0.4%

+0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,076,038
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$191,096

0.3%

-0.0%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,076,038
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$191,096

0.2%

+0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,076,038
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$191,096

0.2%

-0.0%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,076,038
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$191,096

0.2%

-0.0%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$1,076,038
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$191,096

0.1%

-0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.1%$1,076,038
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$191,096

0.1%

+0.0%

24.7%

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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