Odds update every minute | Last updated: 6:50AM EDT on May 03, 2026

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

Senate Control 2026Senate Control 2026

$6,497,765 bet so far
DEM details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸48.5-49.5%$3,939,981
Polymarket 🌎50.0-51.0%$2,234,344
PredictIt 🇺🇸46.0-47.0%$283,387
Betfair 🇬🇧49.1-53.9%$34,693
Smarkets 🇬🇧51.8-55.6%$5,360

50.2%

-0.3%
REP details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸50.5-51.5%$3,939,981
Polymarket 🌎49.0-50.0%$2,234,344
PredictIt 🇺🇸53.0-54.0%$283,387
Betfair 🇬🇧46.4-50.6%$34,693
Smarkets 🇬🇧42.6-50.0%$5,360

49.8%

0.3%
Senate Seats 2026 (estimate: 51-49. Hover over states)
Current Senate is 47-53
Polymarket:
Kalshi:
PredictIt:
State election odds update every 20 minutes. Last updated: 6:18AM EDT on May 03, 2026
Over $5 million bet. State betting is from Polymarket, Kalshi and PredictIt. Others to be added if liquid state market available.
US Presidency 2028Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2028

$585,269,209 bet so far
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎21.1-21.2%$563,879,892
Kalshi 🇺🇸18.0-19.0%$18,930,883
Betfair 🇬🇧17.2-18.5%$1,179,697
PredictIt 🇺🇸24.0-25.0%$1,068,742
Smarkets 🇬🇧17.2-18.9%$210,702

20.0%

-0.2%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎17.6-17.8%$563,879,892
Kalshi 🇺🇸16.0-17.0%$18,930,883
Betfair 🇬🇧17.9-18.9%$1,179,697
PredictIt 🇺🇸21.0-22.0%$1,068,742
Smarkets 🇬🇧17.9-19.6%$210,702

18.6%

0.5%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎10.1-10.2%$563,879,892
Kalshi 🇺🇸15.0-16.0%$18,930,883
Betfair 🇬🇧8.0-9.1%$1,179,697
PredictIt 🇺🇸14.0-15.0%$1,068,742

12.2%

0.1%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.6-5.8%$563,879,892
Kalshi 🇺🇸5.2-5.4%$18,930,883
Betfair 🇬🇧5.1-5.4%$1,179,697
PredictIt 🇺🇸8.0-9.0%$1,068,742
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.4-6.7%$210,702

6.2%

+0.0%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.2-5.3%$563,879,892
Kalshi 🇺🇸5.8-5.9%$18,930,883
Betfair 🇬🇧2.5-2.9%$1,179,697
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-7.0%$1,068,742
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.3-2.5%$210,702

4.4%

0.3%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧3.7-4.8%$1,179,697
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.8-4.5%$210,702

3.9%

0.8%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.2-2.3%$563,879,892
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.0-3.1%$18,930,883
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-2.8%$1,179,697
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$1,068,742
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.6%$210,702

2.9%

-0.0%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.0-2.2%$563,879,892
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.8-2.9%$18,930,883
Betfair 🇬🇧1.7-2.8%$1,179,697
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$1,068,742
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.5-2.4%$210,702

2.7%

-0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-3.4%$1,179,697
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.2%$210,702

2.4%

0.1%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.9-2.1%$563,879,892
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-2.1%$18,930,883
Betfair 🇬🇧1.4-2.1%$1,179,697
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.4-1.8%$210,702

1.9%

0.2%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$563,879,892
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.8-0.9%$18,930,883
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-2.3%$1,179,697
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-4.0%$1,068,742
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.3%$210,702

1.8%

-0.0%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.4-1.5%$563,879,892
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-1.2%$18,930,883
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-2.2%$1,179,697
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-2.2%$210,702

1.5%

0.2%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.8-1.5%$1,179,697
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-0.9%$210,702

1.0%

+0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.8-0.9%$563,879,892
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.2-0.5%$18,930,883
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.8%$1,179,697
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-0.8%$210,702

0.6%

-0.0%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.4-0.7%$1,179,697
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-0.6%$210,702

0.5%

-0.0%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.6%$1,179,697
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.6%$210,702

0.4%

-0.0%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$563,879,892
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.2-0.3%$18,930,883
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$1,179,697
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$210,702

0.4%

+0.0%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$1,179,697
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.4%$210,702

0.3%

-0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,179,697
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$210,702

0.3%

-0.0%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,179,697
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$210,702

0.2%

-0.0%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,179,697
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$210,702

0.2%

-0.0%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$1,179,697
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$210,702

0.1%

-0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$1,179,697
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$210,702

0.1%

+0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$1,179,697
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$210,702

0.1%

-0.0%

17.3%

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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