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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

Will Supreme Court
allow Trump tariffs?Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Trump's tariffs?

$15,778,041 bet so far
No details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-100.0%$11,017,502
Polymarket 🌎100.0-100.0%$4,760,539

100.0%

-0.0%
Yes details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-100.0%$11,017,502
Polymarket 🌎0.0-0.0%$4,760,539

0.0%

-0.0%
Presidency 2028 (by party)Bets on which party will control the Presidency after Nov 5, 2028 elections

$399,671 bet so far
DEM details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸53.0-55.0%$239,640
Betfair 🇬🇧55.6-56.8%$158,092
Smarkets 🇬🇧54.9-57.8%$1,939

55.5%

+0.0%
REP details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸45.0-46.0%$239,640
Betfair 🇬🇧41.7-42.7%$158,092
Smarkets 🇬🇧40.6-43.5%$1,939

43.3%

-0.1%

1.2%
US Presidency 2028Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2028

$324,818,378 bet so far
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎23.3-23.4%$314,510,679
Kalshi 🇺🇸22.0-23.0%$8,303,689
Betfair 🇬🇧22.2-22.7%$1,016,371
PredictIt 🇺🇸25.0-26.0%$809,464
Smarkets 🇬🇧22.2-23.3%$178,237

23.3%

-0.1%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎17.8-18.0%$314,510,679
Kalshi 🇺🇸18.0-19.0%$8,303,689
Betfair 🇬🇧18.9-20.0%$1,016,371
PredictIt 🇺🇸25.0-26.0%$809,464
Smarkets 🇬🇧18.9-20.0%$178,237

20.2%

0.1%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎7.3-7.4%$314,510,679
Kalshi 🇺🇸8.0-9.0%$8,303,689
Betfair 🇬🇧6.7-7.4%$1,016,371
PredictIt 🇺🇸10.0-12.0%$809,464

8.5%

0.1%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.7-5.8%$314,510,679
Kalshi 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$8,303,689
Betfair 🇬🇧5.0-5.1%$1,016,371
PredictIt 🇺🇸8.0-9.0%$809,464
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.0-6.3%$178,237

6.1%

0.2%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.4-2.6%$314,510,679
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$8,303,689
Betfair 🇬🇧2.6-3.1%$1,016,371
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$809,464
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.2-2.9%$178,237

3.6%

+0.0%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.3-3.4%$314,510,679
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$8,303,689
Betfair 🇬🇧2.6-3.1%$1,016,371
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$809,464
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.6-2.9%$178,237

3.4%

-0.0%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.0-2.1%$314,510,679
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$8,303,689
Betfair 🇬🇧1.8-2.3%$1,016,371
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$809,464
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.7-2.2%$178,237

2.6%

-0.2%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.3-1.4%$314,510,679
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$8,303,689
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-2.3%$1,016,371
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$809,464
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.2%$178,237

1.9%

+0.0%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.3-1.4%$314,510,679
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$8,303,689
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-2.2%$1,016,371
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.4-1.5%$178,237

1.8%

-0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.5-1.8%$1,016,371
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-1.8%$178,237

1.6%

-0.0%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.1-1.2%$314,510,679
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$8,303,689
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-1.5%$1,016,371
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-1.7%$178,237

1.4%

+0.0%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.2-1.4%$1,016,371
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.9-1.2%$178,237

1.2%

+0.0%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.7-1.3%$1,016,371
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.6-0.9%$178,237

0.9%

+0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.0-1.1%$314,510,679
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$8,303,689
Betfair 🇬🇧0.9-1.3%$1,016,371
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.0-1.1%$178,237

0.8%

-0.0%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.8%$1,016,371
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-0.8%$178,237

0.6%

-0.0%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.6%$1,016,371
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.6%$178,237

0.5%

+0.0%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.8-0.9%$314,510,679
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$8,303,689
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$1,016,371
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$178,237

0.3%

-0.0%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$1,016,371
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.4%$178,237

0.3%

+0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,016,371
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$178,237

0.3%

-0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,016,371
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$178,237

0.2%

+0.0%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,016,371
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$178,237

0.2%

-0.0%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$1,016,371
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$178,237

0.2%

+0.0%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$1,016,371
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$178,237

0.2%

+0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.1%$1,016,371
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$178,237

0.1%

+0.0%

20.1%

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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