Odds update every minute | Last updated: 10:14AM EST on Feb 21, 2024

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

DEM Nomination 2024Democratic nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2024

$19,563,678 bet so far

Biden details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧69.0-69.4%$8,600,472
PredictIt 🇺🇸73.0-74.0%$5,488,483
Polymarket 🌎77.0-79.0%$4,550,503
Smarkets 🇬🇧69.9-74.1%$924,100

72.6%

-0.1%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧6.9-7.7%$8,600,472
PredictIt 🇺🇸14.0-15.0%$5,488,483
Polymarket 🌎7.0-9.0%$4,550,503
Smarkets 🇬🇧6.5-8.7%$924,100

9.5%

-0.0%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧6.3-6.7%$8,600,472
PredictIt 🇺🇸7.0-8.0%$5,488,483
Polymarket 🌎2.0-4.0%$4,550,503
Smarkets 🇬🇧6.3-7.7%$924,100

6.0%

0.2%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.8-1.2%$8,600,472
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$5,488,483
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-1.0%$924,100

1.9%

+0.0%
Warren details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.8-1.3%$8,600,472
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$5,488,483
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-1.2%$924,100

0.7%

-0.0%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.4%$8,600,472
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$924,100

0.3%

-0.0%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$8,600,472
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$5,488,483
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$924,100

0.1%

+0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$8,600,472
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$924,100

0.1%

+0.0%

8.9%

GOP Nomination 2024GOP Nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2024

$27,235,945 bet so far

Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
PredictIt 🇺🇸88.0-89.0%$12,804,304
Betfair 🇬🇧89.3-90.9%$7,250,050
Polymarket 🌎86.8-88.7%$6,247,780
Smarkets 🇬🇧90.1-92.6%$933,811

88.8%

-0.1%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$12,804,304
Betfair 🇬🇧4.5-5.0%$7,250,050
Polymarket 🌎3.8-5.7%$6,247,780
Smarkets 🇬🇧4.5-5.0%$933,811

5.1%

+0.0%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$12,804,304
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-1.1%$7,250,050
Polymarket 🌎6.6-8.5%$6,247,780
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.6-1.3%$933,811

2.7%

+0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.8%$7,250,050
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$933,811

0.4%

+0.0%
TimScott details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$12,804,304
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-1.4%$7,250,050
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$933,811

0.3%

-0.0%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$12,804,304
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.5%$7,250,050
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$933,811

0.1%

+0.0%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$12,804,304
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$7,250,050
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$933,811

0.1%

+0.0%
Crenshaw details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$933,811

0.1%

+0.0%

2.4%

US Presidency 2024Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2024

$67,861,352 bet so far

Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎54.0-56.0%$47,354,543
Betfair 🇬🇧43.1-43.5%$13,948,757
PredictIt 🇺🇸45.0-46.0%$4,029,477
Smarkets 🇬🇧43.1-44.6%$2,532,575

51.6%

-0.0%
Biden details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎31.0-33.0%$47,354,543
Betfair 🇬🇧27.4-27.8%$13,948,757
PredictIt 🇺🇸40.0-41.0%$4,029,477
Smarkets 🇬🇧28.2-29.4%$2,532,575

31.5%

-0.1%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.0-6.0%$47,354,543
Betfair 🇬🇧7.1-7.4%$13,948,757
Smarkets 🇬🇧6.9-7.4%$2,532,575

5.6%

-0.0%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.0-3.0%$47,354,543
Betfair 🇬🇧4.5-5.0%$13,948,757
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.6-5.0%$2,532,575

2.7%

+0.0%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.0-2.0%$47,354,543
Betfair 🇬🇧3.4-3.7%$13,948,757
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$4,029,477
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.6-4.0%$2,532,575

1.9%

+0.0%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.0-2.0%$47,354,543
Betfair 🇬🇧2.8-3.1%$13,948,757
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.9%$2,532,575

1.5%

+0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.0-1.0%$47,354,543
Betfair 🇬🇧3.4-3.6%$13,948,757
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.9-3.6%$2,532,575

1.3%

0.1%
Warren details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.0-0.0%$47,354,543
Betfair 🇬🇧0.6-0.7%$13,948,757
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.8%$2,532,575

0.2%

-0.0%

3.8%


Books we like:

"Give Me A Break"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"The Scout Mindset"
By Julia Galef
"Radical"
By Maajid Nawaz
"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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