Odds update every minute | Last updated: 4:03PM EST on Mar 03, 2026

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

Senate Control 2026Senate Control 2026

$1,847,270 bet so far
REP details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸56.0-57.0%$1,847,270

56.5%

-3.0%
DEM details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸43.0-44.0%$1,847,270

43.5%

3.0%
Senate Seats 2026 (estimate: 49-51. Hover over states)
270 electoral votes needed to win
Polymarket:
Kalshi:
PredictIt:
State election odds update every 20 minutes. Last updated: 3:50PM EST on Mar 03, 2026
Over $5 million bet. State betting is from Polymarket, Kalshi and PredictIt. Others to be added if liquid state market available.
US Presidency 2028Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2028

$367,978,684 bet so far
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎22.3-22.4%$356,489,797
Kalshi 🇺🇸21.0-22.0%$9,446,647
Betfair 🇬🇧20.4-20.8%$1,030,241
PredictIt 🇺🇸25.0-26.0%$833,962
Smarkets 🇬🇧21.3-21.7%$183,850

22.3%

0.1%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎16.5-16.7%$356,489,797
Kalshi 🇺🇸17.0-18.0%$9,446,647
Betfair 🇬🇧14.3-16.7%$1,030,241
PredictIt 🇺🇸24.0-25.0%$833,962
Smarkets 🇬🇧15.6-16.7%$183,850

18.0%

-0.7%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎8.4-8.5%$356,489,797
Kalshi 🇺🇸9.0-10.0%$9,446,647
Betfair 🇬🇧10.0-12.2%$1,030,241
PredictIt 🇺🇸11.0-12.0%$833,962

10.1%

0.5%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.3-5.5%$356,489,797
Kalshi 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$9,446,647
Betfair 🇬🇧5.1-5.9%$1,030,241
PredictIt 🇺🇸8.0-9.0%$833,962
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.9-6.7%$183,850

6.2%

-0.2%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.2-2.3%$356,489,797
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$9,446,647
Betfair 🇬🇧2.5-2.9%$1,030,241
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$833,962
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.2-2.8%$183,850

3.5%

+0.0%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.2-3.4%$356,489,797
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$9,446,647
Betfair 🇬🇧1.8-2.5%$1,030,241
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-6.0%$833,962
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.2-2.5%$183,850

3.3%

-0.1%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.8-2.0%$356,489,797
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$9,446,647
Betfair 🇬🇧2.2-2.4%$1,030,241
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-6.0%$833,962
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.4%$183,850

2.8%

-0.0%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.2-1.3%$356,489,797
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$9,446,647
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-2.2%$1,030,241
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-5.0%$833,962
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.2%$183,850

2.2%

-0.0%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.6-1.7%$356,489,797
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$9,446,647
Betfair 🇬🇧1.4-1.7%$1,030,241
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.4-1.5%$183,850

1.8%

-0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.7-2.0%$1,030,241
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-1.8%$183,850

1.7%

+0.0%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.8-2.2%$1,030,241
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-1.3%$183,850

1.6%

0.1%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.0-1.1%$356,489,797
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$9,446,647
Betfair 🇬🇧1.4-1.8%$1,030,241
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.4-1.7%$183,850

1.4%

+0.0%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.7-1.1%$1,030,241
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.6-0.9%$183,850

0.8%

+0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$356,489,797
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$9,446,647
Betfair 🇬🇧0.8-1.1%$1,030,241
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.0-1.1%$183,850

0.7%

-0.0%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.5-1.6%$356,489,797
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$9,446,647
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$1,030,241
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$183,850

0.5%

+0.0%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.7%$1,030,241
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.6%$183,850

0.5%

-0.0%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.8%$1,030,241
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.7%$183,850

0.4%

-0.1%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$1,030,241
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.4%$183,850

0.3%

+0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,030,241
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$183,850

0.3%

-0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,030,241
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$183,850

0.2%

+0.0%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,030,241
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$183,850

0.2%

-0.0%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,030,241
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$183,850

0.2%

+0.0%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$1,030,241
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$183,850

0.1%

-0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.1%$1,030,241
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$183,850

0.1%

+0.0%

20.6%

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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