Odds update every minute | Last updated: 6:24AM EDT on May 04, 2026

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

Senate Control 2026Senate Control 2026

$6,531,245 bet so far
REP details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸50.5-51.5%$3,966,060
Polymarket 🌎49.5-50.5%$2,241,369
PredictIt 🇺🇸53.5-54.5%$283,615
Betfair 🇬🇧47.6-49.5%$34,851
Smarkets 🇬🇧44.0-49.2%$5,360

50.0%

0.3%
DEM details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸48.5-49.5%$3,966,060
Polymarket 🌎49.5-50.5%$2,241,369
PredictIt 🇺🇸45.5-46.5%$283,615
Betfair 🇬🇧50.2-52.6%$34,851
Smarkets 🇬🇧52.1-54.7%$5,360

50.0%

-0.3%
Senate Seats 2026 (estimate: 52-48. Hover over states)
Current Senate is 47-53
Polymarket:
Kalshi:
PredictIt:
State election odds update every 20 minutes. Last updated: 6:02AM EDT on May 04, 2026
Over $5 million bet. State betting is from Polymarket, Kalshi and PredictIt. Others to be added if liquid state market available.
US Presidency 2028Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2028

$589,301,941 bet so far
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎21.0-21.1%$567,855,441
Kalshi 🇺🇸18.0-19.0%$18,985,123
Betfair 🇬🇧17.2-18.2%$1,179,640
PredictIt 🇺🇸24.0-25.0%$1,072,821
Smarkets 🇬🇧17.2-18.2%$210,702

19.9%

-0.1%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎17.2-17.3%$567,855,441
Kalshi 🇺🇸17.0-18.0%$18,985,123
Betfair 🇬🇧17.9-18.5%$1,179,640
PredictIt 🇺🇸21.0-22.0%$1,072,821
Smarkets 🇬🇧17.9-18.9%$210,702

18.6%

+0.0%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎10.1-10.2%$567,855,441
Kalshi 🇺🇸15.0-16.0%$18,985,123
Betfair 🇬🇧8.0-9.1%$1,179,640
PredictIt 🇺🇸13.0-15.0%$1,072,821

12.0%

-0.1%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.6-5.7%$567,855,441
Kalshi 🇺🇸5.3-5.5%$18,985,123
Betfair 🇬🇧5.1-5.4%$1,179,640
PredictIt 🇺🇸8.0-9.0%$1,072,821
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.4-6.7%$210,702

6.2%

+0.0%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.3-5.5%$567,855,441
Kalshi 🇺🇸5.2-5.6%$18,985,123
Betfair 🇬🇧2.5-2.8%$1,179,640
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$1,072,821
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.4-2.5%$210,702

4.1%

-0.4%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧4.0-4.3%$1,179,640
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.1-4.2%$210,702

3.9%

-0.0%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.1-2.2%$567,855,441
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.0-3.1%$18,985,123
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-2.8%$1,179,640
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$1,072,821
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.6%$210,702

2.9%

-0.0%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.0-2.2%$567,855,441
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.8-2.9%$18,985,123
Betfair 🇬🇧1.7-2.8%$1,179,640
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$1,072,821
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.5-2.4%$210,702

2.7%

-0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-2.8%$1,179,640
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.2%$210,702

2.3%

-0.2%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$567,855,441
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.8-1.0%$18,985,123
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-2.3%$1,179,640
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-4.0%$1,072,821
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.3%$210,702

1.8%

+0.0%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.6-1.7%$567,855,441
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-2.1%$18,985,123
Betfair 🇬🇧1.4-2.0%$1,179,640
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.4-2.0%$210,702

1.8%

-0.1%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$567,855,441
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.1-1.3%$18,985,123
Betfair 🇬🇧2.0-2.2%$1,179,640
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.2%$210,702

1.6%

0.1%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.8-1.5%$1,179,640
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-0.9%$210,702

1.0%

-0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.8-0.9%$567,855,441
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.2-0.5%$18,985,123
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.8%$1,179,640
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-0.8%$210,702

0.6%

+0.0%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.7%$1,179,640
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-0.6%$210,702

0.5%

-0.1%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.6%$1,179,640
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.6%$210,702

0.4%

-0.0%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$567,855,441
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.2-0.3%$18,985,123
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$1,179,640
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$210,702

0.4%

+0.0%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$1,179,640
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.4%$210,702

0.3%

-0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,179,640
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$210,702

0.3%

-0.0%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,179,640
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$210,702

0.2%

-0.0%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,179,640
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$210,702

0.2%

-0.0%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$1,179,640
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$210,702

0.1%

-0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$1,179,640
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$210,702

0.1%

+0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$1,179,640
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$210,702

0.1%

-0.0%

18.2%

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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