Odds update every minute | Last updated: 10:04PM EDT on Sep 26, 2023

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

DEM Nomination 2024Democratic nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2024

$5,970,754 bet so far
Biden details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧65.8-66.2%$4,657,434
PredictIt 🇺🇸68.0-69.0%$846,473
Smarkets 🇬🇧67.1-70.4%$466,847

66.6%

-0.5%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧11.4-12.2%$4,657,434
PredictIt 🇺🇸19.0-20.0%$846,473
Smarkets 🇬🇧10.6-11.1%$466,847

12.8%

1.2%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧5.9-6.3%$4,657,434
PredictIt 🇺🇸7.0-8.0%$846,473
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.4-6.9%$466,847

6.3%

-0.1%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧2.2-2.8%$4,657,434
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.6%$466,847

2.5%

0.6%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-2.0%$4,657,434
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$846,473
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.1-2.2%$466,847

1.6%

0.1%
Warren details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-2.1%$4,657,434
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$846,473
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.1-2.3%$466,847

1.4%

-0.3%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.4%$4,657,434
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$846,473
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.5%$466,847

0.5%

-0.0%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$4,657,434
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$846,473
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$466,847

0.2%

-0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$4,657,434
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$466,847

0.2%

+0.0%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$4,657,434
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$846,473
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$466,847

0.1%

+0.0%

8.0%
GOP Nomination 2024GOP Nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2024

$6,147,825 bet so far
Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧69.9-70.4%$4,234,483
PredictIt 🇺🇸68.1-69.1%$1,305,812
Smarkets 🇬🇧73.5-76.9%$607,530

70.3%

-0.1%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧8.0-9.1%$4,234,483
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.4-7.4%$1,305,812
Smarkets 🇬🇧7.1-9.5%$607,530

8.2%

-0.4%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧5.4-5.6%$4,234,483
PredictIt 🇺🇸8.3-9.2%$1,305,812
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.0-5.9%$607,530

6.2%

-0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧4.3-5.0%$4,234,483
PredictIt 🇺🇸8.3-9.2%$1,305,812
Smarkets 🇬🇧4.3-5.4%$607,530

5.6%

-0.2%
Christie details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-1.3%$4,234,483
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.8-3.7%$1,305,812
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.6-0.9%$607,530

1.4%

-0.1%
TimScott details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-1.2%$4,234,483
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.8-2.8%$1,305,812
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-1.4%$607,530

1.0%

-0.1%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-1.7%$4,234,483
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-0.9%$1,305,812
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-0.5%$607,530

0.8%

+0.0%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.0%$4,234,483
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.9-1.8%$1,305,812
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.8%$607,530

0.7%

-0.0%
Pompeo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-1.4%$4,234,483
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-0.9%$1,305,812
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$607,530

0.5%

+0.0%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-1.3%$4,234,483
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-0.9%$1,305,812
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$607,530

0.4%

-0.0%

4.9%
US Presidency 2024Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2024

$8,753,366 bet so far
Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧33.8-34.0%$6,830,880
Smarkets 🇬🇧34.3-35.2%$1,772,472
PredictIt 🇺🇸37.0-38.0%$150,592

34.1%

0.4%
Biden details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧29.0-29.4%$6,830,880
Smarkets 🇬🇧32.3-33.3%$1,772,472
PredictIt 🇺🇸42.0-43.0%$150,592

30.2%

-0.8%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧7.7-8.3%$6,830,880
Smarkets 🇬🇧7.1-8.7%$1,772,472

8.0%

0.9%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧4.5-4.8%$6,830,880
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.5-4.8%$1,772,472

4.4%

-0.1%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧4.3-4.5%$6,830,880
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.9-5.0%$1,772,472

4.4%

0.4%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧3.3-3.4%$6,830,880
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.8-3.7%$1,772,472
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.0-7.0%$150,592

3.4%

-0.1%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧3.3-3.4%$6,830,880
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.1-3.9%$1,772,472

3.4%

-0.1%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧2.9-3.3%$6,830,880
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.5-3.3%$1,772,472

3.1%

0.1%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧2.8-2.9%$6,830,880
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.4-3.3%$1,772,472
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$150,592

2.9%

0.1%
Warren details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.8-1.2%$6,830,880
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.8-1.1%$1,772,472

1.0%

+0.0%

5.0%

Books we like:
"Give Me A Break"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"The Scout Mindset"
By Julia Galef
"Radical"
By Maajid Nawaz
"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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