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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

Will Supreme Court
allow Trump tariffs?Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Trump's tariffs?

$4,209,044 bet so far
No details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸77.0-78.0%$2,746,938
Polymarket 🌎73.0-74.0%$1,462,156

75.5%

1.0%
Yes details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸22.0-23.0%$2,746,938
Polymarket 🌎26.0-27.0%$1,462,156

24.5%

-1.0%
Presidency 2028 (by party)Bets on which party will control the Presidency after Nov 5, 2028 elections

$296,671 bet so far
DEM details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸53.0-54.0%$161,983
Betfair 🇬🇧53.8-55.2%$132,769
Smarkets 🇬🇧52.9-56.2%$1,919

54.2%

-0.0%
REP details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸46.0-47.0%$161,983
Betfair 🇬🇧43.5-44.6%$132,769
Smarkets 🇬🇧42.4-45.9%$1,919

44.9%

0.1%

0.9%
US Presidency 2028Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2028

$145,863,605 bet so far
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎29.0-30.0%$141,492,766
Kalshi 🇺🇸28.0-30.0%$2,932,184
Betfair 🇬🇧26.3-26.7%$768,200
PredictIt 🇺🇸28.0-29.0%$541,330
Smarkets 🇬🇧25.3-27.8%$129,220

28.0%

-0.3%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎17.0-18.0%$141,492,766
Kalshi 🇺🇸20.0-21.0%$2,932,184
Betfair 🇬🇧17.9-18.5%$768,200
PredictIt 🇺🇸19.0-21.0%$541,330
Smarkets 🇬🇧16.9-19.6%$129,220

18.9%

-0.1%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎7.0-8.0%$141,492,766
Kalshi 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$2,932,184
Betfair 🇬🇧5.7-5.9%$768,200
PredictIt 🇺🇸7.0-8.0%$541,330
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.9-6.5%$129,220

6.5%

-0.1%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.0-4.1%$141,492,766
Kalshi 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$2,932,184
Betfair 🇬🇧3.1-3.4%$768,200
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$541,330

4.3%

0.1%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.4-2.6%$141,492,766
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$2,932,184
Betfair 🇬🇧2.4-2.8%$768,200
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$541,330
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.5%$129,220

2.9%

-0.0%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.2-4.4%$141,492,766
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$2,932,184
Betfair 🇬🇧1.4-3.1%$768,200
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$541,330
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-2.0%$129,220

2.8%

+0.0%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.8-2.0%$141,492,766
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$2,932,184
Betfair 🇬🇧1.8-2.4%$768,200
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$541,330
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.5%$129,220

2.4%

-0.0%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.2-1.3%$141,492,766
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$2,932,184
Betfair 🇬🇧1.7-2.3%$768,200
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$541,330
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-2.0%$129,220

2.2%

-0.1%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.0-4.8%$768,200
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.8-5.3%$129,220

1.8%

-0.3%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.8-0.9%$141,492,766
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$2,932,184
Betfair 🇬🇧2.0-2.3%$768,200
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.8-2.5%$129,220

1.7%

+0.0%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.2-1.3%$141,492,766
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$2,932,184
Betfair 🇬🇧1.8-2.2%$768,200
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.5-2.2%$129,220

1.7%

+0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.2-1.7%$768,200
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.0-1.8%$129,220

1.4%

-0.0%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-1.3%$768,200
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.9-1.7%$129,220

1.2%

+0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-0.8%$141,492,766
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$2,932,184
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-2.1%$768,200
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.1-1.3%$129,220

0.9%

0.1%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.7-1.1%$768,200
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.6-0.7%$129,220

0.8%

+0.0%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-0.8%$768,200
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-1.0%$129,220

0.8%

+0.0%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.7%$768,200
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.7%$129,220

0.5%

-0.0%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$141,492,766
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$2,932,184
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.5%$768,200
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-0.5%$129,220

0.5%

+0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.3%$768,200
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$129,220

0.4%

+0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$768,200
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.4%$129,220

0.3%

+0.0%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$768,200
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$129,220

0.3%

+0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$768,200
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$129,220

0.2%

+0.0%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$768,200
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$129,220

0.2%

-0.0%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$768,200
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$129,220

0.2%

+0.0%

19.3%

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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