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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from FTX.com, Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

DEM Nomination 2024Democratic nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2024

$454,579 bet so far

Biden details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸39.0-40.0%$222,980
Betfair 🇬🇧30.3-30.8%$205,734
Smarkets 🇬🇧29.8-31.3%$25,865

34.9%

-0.0%
Harris details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸30.0-31.0%$222,980
Betfair 🇬🇧27.0-29.0%$205,734
Smarkets 🇬🇧27.0-29.4%$25,865

29.2%

0.3%
Buttigieg details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸7.0-8.0%$222,980
Betfair 🇬🇧2.8-5.1%$205,734
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.5-4.8%$25,865

5.7%

-0.0%
Cortez details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$222,980
Betfair 🇬🇧0.6-2.9%$205,734
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.1-2.0%$25,865

3.6%

+0.0%
Warren details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$222,980
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-2.6%$205,734
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.7-2.2%$25,865

2.5%

+0.0%
Sanders details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$222,980
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-2.2%$205,734
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-1.4%$25,865

1.8%

-0.0%
Clinton details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$222,980
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.3%$205,734

1.6%

-0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-2.0%$205,734
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.8%$25,865

1.0%

+0.0%
Yang details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.8%$205,734
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-1.4%$25,865

0.9%

-0.0%

18.6%

Presidency 2024Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2024

$14,747,731 bet so far

Trump details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
FTX 🌎27.6-28.7%$13,789,568
Betfair 🇬🇧21.3-22.2%$717,400
Smarkets 🇬🇧21.3-21.7%$227,427
PredictIt 🇺🇸30.0-31.0%$13,336

27.7%

-0.4%
Biden details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧18.5-19.2%$717,400
Smarkets 🇬🇧18.5-19.6%$227,427
PredictIt 🇺🇸26.0-27.0%$13,336

19.0%

0.6%
Harris details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧12.5-13.2%$717,400
Smarkets 🇬🇧12.5-13.5%$227,427
PredictIt 🇺🇸14.0-15.0%$13,336

12.9%

0.5%
DeSantis details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧6.5-7.1%$717,400
Smarkets 🇬🇧6.3-6.9%$227,427
PredictIt 🇺🇸16.0-17.0%$13,336

6.9%

+0.0%
Haley details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧3.8-4.5%$717,400
Smarkets 🇬🇧4.2-4.5%$227,427

4.2%

-0.0%
Pence details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧2.3-3.4%$717,400
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.1-3.3%$227,427

2.9%

+0.0%
Buttigieg details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧2.3-2.9%$717,400
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.4-2.9%$227,427

2.6%

-0.0%
Pompeo details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧1.4-2.0%$717,400
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.5-2.0%$227,427

1.7%

0.1%
Warren details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-1.8%$717,400
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-1.8%$227,427

1.3%

-0.0%
Noem details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-1.4%$717,400
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.1-1.2%$227,427

1.2%

-0.0%
Carlson details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧1.0-1.4%$717,400
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.1-1.3%$227,427

1.2%

0.1%
Cortez details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.7-1.2%$717,400
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.8-1.3%$227,427

1.0%

+0.0%
Hawley details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.7-0.9%$717,400
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-0.9%$227,427

0.8%

+0.0%
Cruz details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.3%$717,400
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.8-1.3%$227,427

0.8%

-0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.6-0.8%$717,400
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-0.8%$227,427

0.7%

+0.0%
Obama details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-0.8%$717,400
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.9%$227,427

0.7%

-0.1%
Cotton details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-0.8%$717,400
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-0.8%$227,427

0.7%

+0.0%
Trump_Jr details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.6%$717,400
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-0.6%$227,427

0.4%

-0.0%
Sanders details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.6%$717,400
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$227,427

0.3%

+0.0%
Rubio details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$717,400
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.4%$227,427

0.3%

-0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$717,400
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$227,427

0.2%

-0.0%

12.5%

GOP Nomination 2024GOP Nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2024

$953,542 bet so far

Trump details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸39.4-40.4%$744,618
Betfair 🇬🇧42.0-43.1%$161,249
Smarkets 🇬🇧42.4-43.1%$47,675

40.5%

-0.1%
DeSantis details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸19.3-20.2%$744,618
Betfair 🇬🇧11.9-13.2%$161,249
Smarkets 🇬🇧12.5-13.2%$47,675

18.2%

+0.0%
Haley details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.4-7.3%$744,618
Betfair 🇬🇧9.1-10.9%$161,249
Smarkets 🇬🇧9.1-10.9%$47,675

7.6%

-0.0%
Pence details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.7-4.6%$744,618
Betfair 🇬🇧6.1-6.7%$161,249
Smarkets 🇬🇧6.1-6.7%$47,675

4.6%

-0.0%
Pompeo details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.7-4.6%$744,618
Betfair 🇬🇧2.9-3.3%$161,249
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.9-3.3%$47,675

3.9%

-0.0%
TimScott details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.7-4.6%$744,618
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-3.7%$161,249
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.1-2.0%$47,675

3.3%

-0.0%
Cruz details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.8-3.7%$744,618
Betfair 🇬🇧2.6-3.6%$161,249
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.8-3.3%$47,675

3.2%

-0.0%
Cotton details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.8-3.7%$744,618
Betfair 🇬🇧2.0-2.8%$161,249
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.8%$47,675

3.0%

-0.0%
Noem details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.8-3.7%$744,618
Betfair 🇬🇧1.8-2.1%$161,249
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.8-2.1%$47,675

2.9%

-0.0%
Hawley details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.8-2.8%$744,618
Betfair 🇬🇧2.0-2.5%$161,249
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.4%$47,675

2.3%

+0.0%
Rubio details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.8-2.8%$744,618
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-2.1%$161,249
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-1.1%$47,675

2.0%

-0.0%
RickScott details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.8-2.8%$744,618
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.7%$161,249
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.9%$47,675

2.0%

-0.0%
Trump_Jr details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.8-2.8%$744,618
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.3%$161,249
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.9%$47,675

1.9%

+0.0%
Carlson details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.8-2.8%$744,618
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-3.4%$161,249
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.8-3.3%$47,675

1.9%

-0.5%
I_Trump details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.5%$161,249
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-1.5%$47,675

0.8%

-0.2%
Crenshaw details
Markets   Range (Bid-Ask)   Market Volume
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.1%$161,249
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.8%$47,675

0.6%

+0.0%

1.3%


Books we like:

"No, They Can't"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"Random Walk"
By Burton Malkiel
"Radical"
By Maajid Nawaz
"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

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About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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