Odds update every minute | Last updated: 12:44PM EDT on Jul 09, 2026

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

Senate Control 2026Senate Control 2026

$9,346,348 bet so far
REP details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸55.6-56.6%$5,760,836
Polymarket 🌎53.0-54.0%$3,132,201
PredictIt 🇺🇸58.9-60.9%$349,730
Betfair 🇬🇧54.5-54.8%$96,582
Smarkets 🇬🇧53.6-54.2%$7,334

55.6%

-0.7%
DEM details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸43.4-44.4%$5,760,836
Polymarket 🌎46.0-47.0%$3,132,201
PredictIt 🇺🇸39.6-40.6%$349,730
Betfair 🇬🇧45.2-45.6%$96,582
Smarkets 🇬🇧45.5-46.8%$7,334

44.4%

0.7%
Senate Seats 2026 (estimate: 51-49. Hover over states)
Current Senate is 47-53
Polymarket:
Kalshi:
PredictIt:
State election odds update every 20 minutes. Last updated: 12:18PM EDT on Jul 09, 2026
Over $5 million bet. State betting is from Polymarket, Kalshi and PredictIt. Others to be added if liquid state market available.
US Presidency 2028Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2028

$681,479,596 bet so far
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎20.0-20.1%$652,855,257
Kalshi 🇺🇸16.0-17.0%$25,879,038
Betfair 🇬🇧16.7-17.5%$1,309,943
PredictIt 🇺🇸22.0-23.0%$1,207,156
Smarkets 🇬🇧17.2-18.2%$232,993

18.8%

-0.1%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎13.5-13.6%$652,855,257
Kalshi 🇺🇸17.0-18.0%$25,879,038
Betfair 🇬🇧10.0-10.9%$1,309,943
PredictIt 🇺🇸17.0-18.0%$1,207,156

14.7%

0.1%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎11.7-11.8%$652,855,257
Kalshi 🇺🇸12.0-13.0%$25,879,038
Betfair 🇬🇧12.5-13.2%$1,309,943
PredictIt 🇺🇸16.0-18.0%$1,207,156
Smarkets 🇬🇧12.8-13.9%$232,993

13.5%

0.4%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎7.3-7.4%$652,855,257
Kalshi 🇺🇸8.5-8.8%$25,879,038
Betfair 🇬🇧6.7-7.7%$1,309,943
PredictIt 🇺🇸9.0-11.0%$1,207,156
Smarkets 🇬🇧6.7-10.2%$232,993

8.3%

-0.1%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.1-4.2%$652,855,257
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.3-4.6%$25,879,038
Betfair 🇬🇧2.3-2.5%$1,309,943
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$1,207,156
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.4-2.5%$232,993

3.6%

0.1%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.3-2.5%$652,855,257
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.9-3.0%$25,879,038
Betfair 🇬🇧2.5-3.3%$1,309,943
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$1,207,156
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.8-2.9%$232,993

3.1%

+0.0%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧3.1-3.3%$1,309,943
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.5-3.3%$232,993

3.1%

-0.0%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.7-2.8%$652,855,257
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.7-2.8%$25,879,038
Betfair 🇬🇧1.8-2.2%$1,309,943
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$1,207,156
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.2%$232,993

2.8%

+0.0%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.1-1.2%$652,855,257
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.2-2.5%$25,879,038
Betfair 🇬🇧2.0-3.3%$1,309,943
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.5-3.3%$232,993

2.3%

0.2%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.5-2.1%$1,309,943
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.1%$232,993

1.9%

-0.0%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.1-1.2%$652,855,257
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.3-1.4%$25,879,038
Betfair 🇬🇧0.8-1.5%$1,309,943
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-1.7%$232,993

1.3%

+0.0%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$652,855,257
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.5-0.7%$25,879,038
Betfair 🇬🇧0.8-1.8%$1,309,943
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$1,207,156
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.0-1.7%$232,993

1.3%

-0.0%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.9-1.3%$1,309,943
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.8-1.2%$232,993

1.0%

+0.0%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.4-0.7%$1,309,943
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.5%$232,993

0.5%

-0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$652,855,257
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.2-0.3%$25,879,038
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.7%$1,309,943
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-0.7%$232,993

0.5%

+0.0%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$652,855,257
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.4-0.7%$25,879,038
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$1,309,943
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$232,993

0.4%

-0.0%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.7%$1,309,943
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.4%$232,993

0.4%

+0.0%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.7%$1,309,943
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.5%$232,993

0.4%

+0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,309,943
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$232,993

0.3%

-0.0%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,309,943
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$232,993

0.2%

+0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,309,943
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$232,993

0.2%

+0.0%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,309,943
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$232,993

0.2%

+0.0%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$1,309,943
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$232,993

0.1%

-0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$1,309,943
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$232,993

0.1%

-0.0%

21.1%

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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