Odds update every minute | Last updated: 6:02AM EDT on Apr 16, 2026

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

Senate Control 2026Senate Control 2026

$5,608,217 bet so far
DEM details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸53.0-54.0%$3,366,036
Polymarket 🌎56.0-57.0%$1,953,528
PredictIt 🇺🇸52.0-53.0%$255,413
Betfair 🇬🇧51.3-53.8%$28,551
Smarkets 🇬🇧51.8-55.3%$4,788

53.7%

-0.1%
REP details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸46.0-47.0%$3,366,036
Polymarket 🌎43.0-44.0%$1,953,528
PredictIt 🇺🇸47.0-48.0%$255,413
Betfair 🇬🇧46.3-48.6%$28,551
Smarkets 🇬🇧44.3-48.6%$4,788

46.3%

0.1%
Senate Seats 2026 (estimate: 51-49. Hover over states)
270 electoral votes needed to win
Polymarket:
Kalshi:
PredictIt:
State election odds update every 20 minutes. Last updated: 5:53AM EDT on Apr 16, 2026
Over $5 million bet. State betting is from Polymarket, Kalshi and PredictIt. Others to be added if liquid state market available.
US Presidency 2028Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2028

$549,266,112 bet so far
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎18.8-18.9%$530,342,184
Kalshi 🇺🇸19.0-20.0%$16,570,530
Betfair 🇬🇧17.2-18.5%$1,149,261
PredictIt 🇺🇸22.0-24.0%$1,004,329
Smarkets 🇬🇧17.2-18.9%$207,490

19.5%

-0.4%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎17.2-17.3%$530,342,184
Kalshi 🇺🇸16.0-18.0%$16,570,530
Betfair 🇬🇧18.9-19.6%$1,149,261
PredictIt 🇺🇸21.0-22.0%$1,004,329
Smarkets 🇬🇧18.9-20.4%$207,490

18.9%

0.2%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎11.5-11.6%$530,342,184
Kalshi 🇺🇸12.0-14.0%$16,570,530
Betfair 🇬🇧7.7-8.7%$1,149,261
PredictIt 🇺🇸12.0-13.0%$1,004,329

11.3%

0.2%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.0-5.1%$530,342,184
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.7-4.8%$16,570,530
Betfair 🇬🇧4.5-4.8%$1,149,261
PredictIt 🇺🇸8.0-9.0%$1,004,329
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.0-5.7%$207,490

5.7%

-0.0%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.5-4.6%$530,342,184
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.8-3.2%$16,570,530
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-2.4%$1,149,261
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$1,004,329
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.3%$207,490

3.3%

+0.0%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧3.1-3.8%$1,149,261
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.3-3.3%$207,490

3.1%

-0.1%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.1-2.2%$530,342,184
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.2-3.6%$16,570,530
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-2.8%$1,149,261
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$1,004,329
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.6%$207,490

3.0%

-0.0%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.7-1.8%$530,342,184
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.6-2.8%$16,570,530
Betfair 🇬🇧1.5-2.5%$1,149,261
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$1,004,329
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.5-2.4%$207,490

2.6%

+0.0%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.0-1.1%$530,342,184
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.9-1.0%$16,570,530
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-2.3%$1,149,261
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$1,004,329
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.2%$207,490

1.8%

+0.0%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.3-1.4%$530,342,184
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.6-2.3%$16,570,530
Betfair 🇬🇧1.4-2.2%$1,149,261
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.4-2.0%$207,490

1.7%

+0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.8-2.2%$1,149,261
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.7-1.8%$207,490

1.6%

-0.0%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.8-0.9%$530,342,184
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.5-0.6%$16,570,530
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-1.5%$1,149,261
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.2-1.7%$207,490

1.0%

+0.0%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.8-1.4%$1,149,261
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-0.9%$207,490

1.0%

-0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.8-0.9%$530,342,184
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.4-0.5%$16,570,530
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.1%$1,149,261
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-1.0%$207,490

0.6%

+0.0%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.7%$1,149,261
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.6%$207,490

0.5%

+0.0%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.6%$1,149,261
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.6%$207,490

0.4%

-0.0%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.6%$1,149,261
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.4%$207,490

0.4%

+0.0%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$530,342,184
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.2-0.3%$16,570,530
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$1,149,261
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$207,490

0.4%

+0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,149,261
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$207,490

0.3%

-0.0%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,149,261
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$207,490

0.2%

-0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,149,261
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$207,490

0.2%

+0.0%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,149,261
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$207,490

0.2%

+0.0%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$1,149,261
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$207,490

0.1%

-0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.1%$1,149,261
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$207,490

0.1%

+0.0%

22.3%

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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