Odds update every minute | Last updated: 5:35AM EDT on Jul 27, 2024

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of winning...

US Presidency 2024Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2024

$484,955,276 bet so far
Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎57.8-58.8%$398,881,108
Betfair 🇬🇧58.3-58.7%$50,276,096
PredictIt 🇺🇸50.7-51.6%$30,566,331
Smarkets 🇬🇧58.1-58.5%$5,306,085

56.6%

-2.1%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎39.6-39.7%$398,881,108
Betfair 🇬🇧38.7-39.0%$50,276,096
PredictIt 🇺🇸46.9-47.8%$30,566,331
Smarkets 🇬🇧37.9-40.0%$5,306,085

41.2%

2.5%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-1.0%$398,881,108
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-0.6%$50,276,096
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.6%$5,306,085

0.6%

+0.0%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.4-0.7%$398,881,108
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-0.6%$50,276,096
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.6-1.0%$5,306,085

0.6%

-0.1%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.0-0.1%$398,881,108
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.1%$50,276,096
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-1.9%$30,566,331
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$5,306,085

0.4%

-0.0%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.2-0.3%$398,881,108
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.4%$50,276,096
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.3%$5,306,085

0.3%

+0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.0-0.1%$398,881,108
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$50,276,096
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$30,566,331
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$5,306,085

0.1%

+0.0%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$50,276,096
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$5,306,085

0.1%

+0.0%

0.1%
Electoral Votes 2024 (estimate: 241-297. Hover over states)
270 electoral votes needed to win
State election odds update every 20 minutes. Last updated: 4:53AM EDT on Jul 27, 2024
Over $1 million bet. State betting is from Polymarket. Others to be added if liquid state market available.
DEM VP NomineeDemocrat Vice Presidential Nominee in 2024

$45,319,584 bet so far
Kelly details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎34.6-35.2%$33,206,728
PredictIt 🇺🇸34.6-35.6%$11,613,256
Betfair 🇬🇧33.6-35.7%$504,492

34.9%

-5.0%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎28.0-29.0%$33,206,728
PredictIt 🇺🇸28.8-29.8%$11,613,256
Betfair 🇬🇧26.3-29.9%$504,492

28.6%

5.7%
Cooper details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎14.0-17.0%$33,206,728
PredictIt 🇺🇸12.5-13.5%$11,613,256
Betfair 🇬🇧11.9-13.5%$504,492

13.7%

0.8%
Beshear details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎6.8-7.0%$33,206,728
PredictIt 🇺🇸8.7-10.6%$11,613,256
Betfair 🇬🇧6.7-8.0%$504,492

7.9%

0.6%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.2-6.2%$33,206,728
PredictIt 🇺🇸7.7-8.7%$11,613,256
Betfair 🇬🇧5.1-7.1%$504,492

6.7%

-0.1%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-1.2%$33,206,728
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.9-3.8%$11,613,256
Betfair 🇬🇧0.4-1.8%$504,492

1.8%

-0.1%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.2-1.5%$33,206,728
Betfair 🇬🇧2.0-2.5%$504,492

1.8%

-0.6%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.3-0.7%$33,206,728
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-1.9%$11,613,256
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.9%$504,492

0.8%

-0.1%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.8%$33,206,728
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$11,613,256
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.4%$504,492

0.5%

0.1%
Cuban details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.2-0.4%$33,206,728

0.3%

-0.1%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.1-0.3%$33,206,728
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$11,613,256
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.8%$504,492

0.2%

0.1%

2.7%

Books we like:
"Give Me A Break"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
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"The Scout Mindset"
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"Radical"
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"In Order To Live"
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About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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