Odds update every minute | Last updated: 2:54AM EDT on Aug 02, 2022

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from FTX.com, Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

US Presidency
2024
Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2024

$17,390,170 bet so far

Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
FTX 🌎41.4-42.6%$14,846,376$607,127
Betfair 🇬🇧21.7-22.7%$1,581,961$393,398
Smarkets 🇬🇧21.7-22.7%$885,698$191,271
PredictIt 🇺🇸28.0-29.0%$76,144$24,568

32.2%

+0.0%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧20.8-21.3%$1,581,961$393,398
Smarkets 🇬🇧20.8-21.3%$885,698$191,271
PredictIt 🇺🇸27.0-28.0%$76,144$24,568

21.3%

0.1%
Biden details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧10.9-11.6%$1,581,961$393,398
Smarkets 🇬🇧11.1-11.9%$885,698$191,271
PredictIt 🇺🇸19.0-20.0%$76,144$24,568

11.7%

0.2%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧6.1-6.7%$1,581,961$393,398
Smarkets 🇬🇧6.1-6.7%$885,698$191,271

6.4%

0.1%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧5.3-6.1%$1,581,961$393,398
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.6-5.7%$885,698$191,271
PredictIt 🇺🇸9.0-10.0%$76,144$24,568

5.8%

0.3%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧3.4-4.2%$1,581,961$393,398
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.7-4.0%$885,698$191,271

3.8%

+0.0%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧2.6-3.6%$1,581,961$393,398
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.6-3.3%$885,698$191,271

3.1%

-0.2%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧2.0-2.9%$1,581,961$393,398
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.9%$885,698$191,271

2.5%

0.3%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.4-2.2%$1,581,961$393,398
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.8-2.2%$885,698$191,271

1.9%

-0.2%
Warren details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-1.7%$1,581,961$393,398
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-1.5%$885,698$191,271

1.4%

+0.0%
Pompeo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.0-1.7%$1,581,961$393,398
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.0-1.5%$885,698$191,271

1.3%

0.3%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.6-1.1%$1,581,961$393,398
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-1.1%$885,698$191,271

0.8%

-0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.7-0.9%$1,581,961$393,398
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-0.8%$885,698$191,271

0.8%

+0.0%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.4-1.0%$1,581,961$393,398
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-0.8%$885,698$191,271

0.7%

0.1%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-1.0%$1,581,961$393,398
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.6%$885,698$191,271

0.6%

+0.0%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.3%$1,581,961$393,398
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$885,698$191,271

0.6%

-0.0%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.0%$1,581,961$393,398
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.4%$885,698$191,271

0.5%

-0.0%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.9%$1,581,961$393,398
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.6%$885,698$191,271

0.5%

-0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.7%$1,581,961$393,398
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.6%$885,698$191,271

0.5%

+0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.6%$1,581,961$393,398
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$885,698$191,271

0.3%

+0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,581,961$393,398
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$885,698$191,271

0.2%

-0.0%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$1,581,961$393,398
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$885,698$191,271

0.2%

-0.0%

3.1%

Senate Seats 2022 (estimate: 50-50. Hover over states)
Current senate is 50-50
Last updated: 2:49AM EDT on Aug 02, 2022
Over $750k bet. State betting is from PredictIt
Betfair to be added if liquid state market available
Senate Control
2022
Bets on which party will control the Senate after Nov 8, 2022 elections

$709,260 bet so far

REP details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎49.0-51.0%$363,563$344,213
PredictIt 🇺🇸50.2-52.2%$332,066$118,993
Smarkets 🇬🇧47.6-54.0%$13,631$7,418

50.3%

+0.0%
DEM details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎49.0-51.0%$363,563$344,213
PredictIt 🇺🇸48.3-49.3%$332,066$118,993
Smarkets 🇬🇧46.3-51.0%$13,631$7,418

49.7%

-0.1%
House Control 2022Bets on which party will control the House after Nov 8, 2022 elections

$639,578 bet so far

REP details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎89.0-91.0%$153,266$133,825
PredictIt 🇺🇸84.3-85.3%$473,005$81,165
Smarkets 🇬🇧84.8-87.0%$13,307$4,165

88.0%

-0.0%
DEM details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎9.0-11.0%$153,266$133,825
PredictIt 🇺🇸14.7-15.7%$473,005$81,165
Smarkets 🇬🇧12.2-16.1%$13,307$4,165

12.0%

0.1%

Books we like:

"No, They Can't"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"Random Walk"
By Burton Malkiel
"Radical"
By Maajid Nawaz
"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

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About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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