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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

Will Supreme Court
allow Trump tariffs?Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Trump's tariffs?

$14,890,622 bet so far
No details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸72.0-73.0%$10,395,358
Polymarket 🌎75.0-76.0%$4,495,264

74.0%

-0.5%
Yes details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸27.0-28.0%$10,395,358
Polymarket 🌎24.0-25.0%$4,495,264

26.0%

0.5%
Presidency 2028 (by party)Bets on which party will control the Presidency after Nov 5, 2028 elections

$393,548 bet so far
DEM details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸53.0-55.0%$232,921
Betfair 🇬🇧55.2-56.8%$158,708
Smarkets 🇬🇧55.3-56.5%$1,919

55.3%

-0.2%
REP details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸45.0-46.0%$232,921
Betfair 🇬🇧41.3-42.7%$158,708
Smarkets 🇬🇧40.3-43.9%$1,919

43.2%

0.3%

1.5%
US Presidency 2028Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2028

$307,298,759 bet so far
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎24.4-24.5%$297,521,420
Kalshi 🇺🇸23.0-25.0%$7,805,773
Betfair 🇬🇧22.7-23.3%$1,008,798
PredictIt 🇺🇸26.0-27.0%$789,057
Smarkets 🇬🇧22.7-23.8%$176,666

24.2%

-0.1%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎17.1-17.2%$297,521,420
Kalshi 🇺🇸20.0-21.0%$7,805,773
Betfair 🇬🇧18.9-19.6%$1,008,798
PredictIt 🇺🇸26.0-27.0%$789,057
Smarkets 🇬🇧18.9-19.6%$176,666

20.5%

-0.0%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎8.1-8.2%$297,521,420
Kalshi 🇺🇸8.0-10.0%$7,805,773
Betfair 🇬🇧6.1-6.9%$1,008,798
PredictIt 🇺🇸10.0-11.0%$789,057

8.5%

+0.0%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.6-4.8%$297,521,420
Kalshi 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$7,805,773
Betfair 🇬🇧5.0-5.3%$1,008,798
PredictIt 🇺🇸8.0-9.0%$789,057
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.1-5.9%$176,666

5.9%

-0.3%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.4-2.5%$297,521,420
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$7,805,773
Betfair 🇬🇧2.2-3.1%$1,008,798
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$789,057
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.9%$176,666

3.5%

-0.0%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.7-3.8%$297,521,420
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$7,805,773
Betfair 🇬🇧2.8-3.1%$1,008,798
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$789,057
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.6-2.9%$176,666

3.5%

+0.0%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.1-2.2%$297,521,420
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$7,805,773
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-2.3%$1,008,798
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$789,057
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.2%$176,666

2.9%

-0.0%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.3-1.4%$297,521,420
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$7,805,773
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-2.3%$1,008,798
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$789,057
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.2%$176,666

1.9%

-0.0%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.3-1.4%$297,521,420
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$7,805,773
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-1.7%$1,008,798
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.4-1.5%$176,666

1.7%

+0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.5-2.1%$1,008,798
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-1.8%$176,666

1.7%

-0.1%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.1-1.2%$297,521,420
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$7,805,773
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-1.8%$1,008,798
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-1.7%$176,666

1.4%

-0.0%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.2-1.3%$1,008,798
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.9-1.2%$176,666

1.1%

-0.0%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.8-1.0%$1,008,798
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-0.9%$176,666

0.9%

+0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.0-1.1%$297,521,420
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$7,805,773
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-1.3%$1,008,798
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.0-1.2%$176,666

0.8%

-0.0%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.7-0.8%$1,008,798
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.8%$176,666

0.7%

-0.0%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-0.6%$1,008,798
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-0.6%$176,666

0.5%

0.1%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.8-0.9%$297,521,420
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$7,805,773
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,008,798
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$176,666

0.3%

-0.0%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,008,798
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.4%$176,666

0.3%

-0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,008,798
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$176,666

0.3%

-0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,008,798
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$176,666

0.2%

+0.0%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,008,798
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$176,666

0.2%

-0.0%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,008,798
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$176,666

0.2%

+0.0%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$1,008,798
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$176,666

0.2%

+0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.1%$1,008,798
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$176,666

0.1%

+0.0%

18.4%

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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