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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from FTX.com, Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

US Presidency
2024
Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2024

$17,099,882 bet so far

Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
FTX 🌎40.1-43.5%$14,815,286$868,289
Betfair 🇬🇧23.8-24.4%$1,415,584$251,581
Smarkets 🇬🇧23.8-24.4%$802,724$127,504
PredictIt 🇺🇸29.0-30.0%$66,295$19,295

36.3%

1.5%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧20.0-20.4%$1,415,584$251,581
Smarkets 🇬🇧20.0-20.4%$802,724$127,504
PredictIt 🇺🇸27.0-28.0%$66,295$19,295

20.6%

-0.5%
Biden details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧13.5-13.9%$1,415,584$251,581
Smarkets 🇬🇧13.5-14.3%$802,724$127,504
PredictIt 🇺🇸22.0-23.0%$66,295$19,295

14.2%

-0.0%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧5.3-5.6%$1,415,584$251,581
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.3-5.4%$802,724$127,504
PredictIt 🇺🇸7.0-8.0%$66,295$19,295

5.5%

-0.3%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧3.8-4.2%$1,415,584$251,581
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.9-4.2%$802,724$127,504

4.0%

-0.3%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧2.6-3.1%$1,415,584$251,581
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.6-2.9%$802,724$127,504

2.8%

-0.1%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧2.2-2.5%$1,415,584$251,581
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.3-2.5%$802,724$127,504

2.4%

-0.2%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.7-2.8%$1,415,584$251,581
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.2-2.3%$802,724$127,504

2.2%

-0.1%
Warren details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-1.8%$1,415,584$251,581
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-1.8%$802,724$127,504

1.6%

-0.0%
Pompeo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-1.5%$1,415,584$251,581
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-1.5%$802,724$127,504

1.3%

-0.1%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.7-1.2%$1,415,584$251,581
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.9-1.1%$802,724$127,504

1.0%

-0.1%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.7-0.9%$1,415,584$251,581
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-0.8%$802,724$127,504

0.8%

-0.0%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-1.1%$1,415,584$251,581
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.6%$802,724$127,504

0.7%

-0.0%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-1.0%$1,415,584$251,581
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.5%$802,724$127,504

0.5%

-0.0%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.8%$1,415,584$251,581
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.6%$802,724$127,504

0.5%

0.1%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.4-0.6%$1,415,584$251,581
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-0.5%$802,724$127,504

0.5%

-0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.6%$1,415,584$251,581
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.6%$802,724$127,504

0.4%

0.1%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.7%$1,415,584$251,581
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$802,724$127,504

0.4%

-0.0%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.6%$1,415,584$251,581
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$802,724$127,504

0.3%

-0.4%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$1,415,584$251,581
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$802,724$127,504

0.2%

+0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$1,415,584$251,581
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$802,724$127,504

0.2%

+0.0%

3.8%

Senate Seats 2022 (estimate: 49-51. Hover over states)
Current senate is 50-50
Last updated: 11:51AM EDT on Jul 05, 2022
Over $750k bet. State betting is from PredictIt
Betfair to be added if liquid state market available
Senate Control
2022
Bets on which party will control the Senate after Nov 8, 2022 elections

$376,377 bet so far

REP details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
PredictIt 🇺🇸61.4-62.4%$287,548$100,794
Polymarket 🌎62.0-64.0%$76,821$60,824
Smarkets 🇬🇧58.8-64.1%$12,008$6,647

62.3%

-0.0%
DEM details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
PredictIt 🇺🇸37.6-38.6%$287,548$100,794
Polymarket 🌎36.0-38.0%$76,821$60,824
Smarkets 🇬🇧35.7-40.0%$12,008$6,647

37.7%

-0.0%
House Control 2022Bets on which party will control the House after Nov 8, 2022 elections

$565,338 bet so far

REP details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
PredictIt 🇺🇸84.3-85.3%$440,025$99,174
Polymarket 🌎91.0-93.0%$112,469$96,630
Smarkets 🇬🇧85.5-87.7%$12,844$4,420

88.3%

+0.0%
DEM details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet     Quarterly $ Bet
PredictIt 🇺🇸14.7-15.7%$440,025$99,174
Polymarket 🌎7.0-9.0%$112,469$96,630
Smarkets 🇬🇧13.2-16.1%$12,844$4,420

11.7%

-0.0%

Books we like:

"No, They Can't"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"Random Walk"
By Burton Malkiel
"Radical"
By Maajid Nawaz
"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

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About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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