Odds update every minute | Last updated: 2:51PM EDT on Mar 23, 2026

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

Senate Control 2026Senate Control 2026

$3,997,119 bet so far
REP details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸50.0-51.0%$2,598,460
Polymarket 🌎52.0-53.0%$1,169,838
PredictIt 🇺🇸54.0-55.0%$201,749
Betfair 🇬🇧48.5-52.0%$22,358
Smarkets 🇬🇧46.9-50.2%$4,717

51.3%

0.4%
DEM details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸49.0-50.0%$2,598,460
Polymarket 🌎47.0-48.0%$1,169,838
PredictIt 🇺🇸45.0-46.0%$201,749
Betfair 🇬🇧48.0-51.5%$22,358
Smarkets 🇬🇧50.2-52.6%$4,717

48.7%

-0.4%
Senate Seats 2026 (estimate: 51-49. Hover over states)
270 electoral votes needed to win
Polymarket:
Kalshi:
PredictIt:
State election odds update every 20 minutes. Last updated: 2:34PM EDT on Mar 23, 2026
Over $5 million bet. State betting is from Polymarket, Kalshi and PredictIt. Others to be added if liquid state market available.
US Presidency 2028Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2028

$459,461,604 bet so far
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎16.4-16.5%$443,736,937
Kalshi 🇺🇸18.0-19.0%$13,566,769
Betfair 🇬🇧18.5-20.0%$1,082,242
PredictIt 🇺🇸24.0-25.0%$895,668
Smarkets 🇬🇧20.0-20.4%$191,986

19.8%

0.3%
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎19.5-19.7%$443,736,937
Kalshi 🇺🇸18.0-19.0%$13,566,769
Betfair 🇬🇧18.2-18.5%$1,082,242
PredictIt 🇺🇸22.0-23.0%$895,668
Smarkets 🇬🇧18.2-18.9%$191,986

19.5%

-0.4%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎12.0-12.1%$443,736,937
Kalshi 🇺🇸14.0-15.0%$13,566,769
Betfair 🇬🇧10.0-10.9%$1,082,242
PredictIt 🇺🇸14.0-17.0%$895,668

13.1%

-0.2%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.6-4.7%$443,736,937
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$13,566,769
Betfair 🇬🇧4.2-5.0%$1,082,242
PredictIt 🇺🇸9.0-10.0%$895,668
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.0-6.7%$191,986

5.8%

+0.0%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.5-2.6%$443,736,937
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$13,566,769
Betfair 🇬🇧1.8-2.8%$1,082,242
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$895,668
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.6%$191,986

3.0%

+0.0%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.0-3.1%$443,736,937
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$13,566,769
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-2.3%$1,082,242
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$895,668
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.2-2.3%$191,986

2.9%

+0.0%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧2.5-2.9%$1,082,242
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.9%$191,986

2.6%

0.2%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.8-2.0%$443,736,937
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$13,566,769
Betfair 🇬🇧1.8-2.3%$1,082,242
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$895,668
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.7-2.1%$191,986

2.6%

0.3%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$443,736,937
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$13,566,769
Betfair 🇬🇧2.2-2.5%$1,082,242
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$895,668
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.3%$191,986

1.9%

-0.0%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.5-1.6%$443,736,937
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$13,566,769
Betfair 🇬🇧1.4-1.8%$1,082,242
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.4-1.8%$191,986

1.6%

+0.0%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$443,736,937
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$13,566,769
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-1.8%$1,082,242
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.2-2.1%$191,986

1.4%

+0.0%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.8-1.1%$1,082,242
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.6-0.8%$191,986

0.8%

-0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.7%$1,082,242
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-1.4%$191,986

0.8%

-0.2%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$443,736,937
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$13,566,769
Betfair 🇬🇧0.4-1.1%$1,082,242
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-1.0%$191,986

0.6%

0.1%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.7%$1,082,242
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.6%$191,986

0.5%

+0.0%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.8%$1,082,242
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.6%$191,986

0.4%

+0.0%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.6%$1,082,242
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.4%$191,986

0.4%

+0.0%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.8-0.9%$443,736,937
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$13,566,769
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$1,082,242
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$191,986

0.4%

-0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,082,242
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$191,986

0.3%

-0.0%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,082,242
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$191,986

0.2%

-0.0%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,082,242
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$191,986

0.2%

-0.0%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$1,082,242
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$191,986

0.1%

-0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$1,082,242
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$191,986

0.1%

-0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$1,082,242
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$191,986

0.1%

-0.0%

21.0%

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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