Odds update every minute | Last updated: 2:39PM EDT on Apr 16, 2026

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

Senate Control 2026Senate Control 2026

$5,675,967 bet so far
DEM details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸54.0-55.0%$3,397,173
Polymarket 🌎54.5-55.6%$1,989,868
PredictIt 🇺🇸51.2-52.2%$255,477
Betfair 🇬🇧52.6-54.3%$28,797
Smarkets 🇬🇧54.9-55.2%$5,071

54.0%

0.2%
REP details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸45.0-46.0%$3,397,173
Polymarket 🌎44.4-45.5%$1,989,868
PredictIt 🇺🇸47.3-49.3%$255,477
Betfair 🇬🇧45.4-47.6%$28,797
Smarkets 🇬🇧42.9-47.0%$5,071

46.0%

-0.2%
Senate Seats 2026 (estimate: 51-49. Hover over states)
270 electoral votes needed to win
Polymarket:
Kalshi:
PredictIt:
State election odds update every 20 minutes. Last updated: 2:05PM EDT on Apr 16, 2026
Over $5 million bet. State betting is from Polymarket, Kalshi and PredictIt. Others to be added if liquid state market available.
US Presidency 2028Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2028

$550,208,908 bet so far
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎18.7-18.8%$531,258,370
Kalshi 🇺🇸19.0-20.0%$16,590,107
Betfair 🇬🇧17.2-18.5%$1,148,173
PredictIt 🇺🇸22.0-24.0%$1,006,830
Smarkets 🇬🇧17.2-18.9%$208,440

19.4%

-0.1%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎17.1-17.2%$531,258,370
Kalshi 🇺🇸16.0-17.0%$16,590,107
Betfair 🇬🇧18.9-19.6%$1,148,173
PredictIt 🇺🇸21.0-22.0%$1,006,830
Smarkets 🇬🇧18.9-20.4%$208,440

18.8%

-0.1%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎11.4-11.6%$531,258,370
Kalshi 🇺🇸12.0-13.0%$16,590,107
Betfair 🇬🇧7.7-9.1%$1,148,173
PredictIt 🇺🇸12.0-13.0%$1,006,830

11.2%

+0.0%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.2-5.3%$531,258,370
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.7-4.9%$16,590,107
Betfair 🇬🇧4.5-4.8%$1,148,173
PredictIt 🇺🇸8.0-9.0%$1,006,830
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.0-5.9%$208,440

5.7%

0.1%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.5-4.6%$531,258,370
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.8-3.2%$16,590,107
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-2.4%$1,148,173
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$1,006,830
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.3%$208,440

3.3%

0.1%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧3.1-3.8%$1,148,173
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.3-3.3%$208,440

3.1%

+0.0%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.1-2.2%$531,258,370
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.2-3.6%$16,590,107
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-2.8%$1,148,173
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$1,006,830
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.6%$208,440

3.0%

-0.0%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.7-1.8%$531,258,370
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.6-2.8%$16,590,107
Betfair 🇬🇧1.5-2.5%$1,148,173
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$1,006,830
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.5-2.4%$208,440

2.6%

-0.0%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.0-1.1%$531,258,370
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.9-1.0%$16,590,107
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-2.3%$1,148,173
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$1,006,830
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.2%$208,440

1.8%

+0.0%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.4-1.5%$531,258,370
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.7-2.3%$16,590,107
Betfair 🇬🇧1.4-2.2%$1,148,173
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.4-2.0%$208,440

1.7%

+0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.8-2.2%$1,148,173
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.7-1.8%$208,440

1.6%

+0.0%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.8-0.9%$531,258,370
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.5-0.6%$16,590,107
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-1.5%$1,148,173
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.2-1.7%$208,440

1.0%

-0.0%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.8-1.4%$1,148,173
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-0.9%$208,440

1.0%

+0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.8-0.9%$531,258,370
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.4-0.5%$16,590,107
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.1%$1,148,173
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-1.0%$208,440

0.6%

-0.0%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.7%$1,148,173
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.6%$208,440

0.5%

+0.0%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.6%$1,148,173
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.6%$208,440

0.4%

-0.0%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.6%$1,148,173
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.4%$208,440

0.4%

+0.0%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$531,258,370
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.2-0.3%$16,590,107
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$1,148,173
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$208,440

0.4%

+0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,148,173
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$208,440

0.3%

-0.0%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,148,173
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$208,440

0.2%

-0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,148,173
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$208,440

0.2%

-0.0%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,148,173
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$208,440

0.2%

+0.0%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$1,148,173
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$208,440

0.1%

-0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.1%$1,148,173
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$208,440

0.1%

+0.0%

22.4%

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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