Odds update every minute | Last updated: 9:13PM EDT on Aug 16, 2026

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

Senate Control 2026Senate Control 2026

$11,316,319 bet so far
REP details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸50.5-51.5%$6,918,860
Polymarket 🌎47.5-48.5%$3,869,637
PredictIt 🇺🇸52.0-52.9%$387,750
Betfair 🇬🇧48.0-50.0%$140,096

50.1%

0.2%
DEM details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸48.5-49.5%$6,918,860
Polymarket 🌎51.5-52.5%$3,869,637
PredictIt 🇺🇸47.1-48.0%$387,750
Betfair 🇬🇧50.2-51.8%$140,096

49.9%

-0.2%
Senate Seats 2026 (estimate: 51-49. Hover over states)
Current Senate is 47-53
Polymarket:
Kalshi:
PredictIt:
State election odds update every 20 minutes. Last updated: 8:52PM EDT on Aug 16, 2026
Over $5 million bet. State betting is from Polymarket, Kalshi and PredictIt. Others to be added if liquid state market available.
US Presidency 2028Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2028

$726,358,805 bet so far
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎23.0-23.1%$686,517,193
Kalshi 🇺🇸19.0-20.0%$36,854,327
Betfair 🇬🇧17.9-18.2%$1,465,522
PredictIt 🇺🇸23.0-24.0%$1,268,161
Smarkets 🇬🇧17.9-18.5%$253,434

20.5%

0.2%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎13.0-13.1%$686,517,193
Kalshi 🇺🇸14.0-15.0%$36,854,327
Betfair 🇬🇧10.2-10.6%$1,465,522
PredictIt 🇺🇸14.0-15.0%$1,268,161
Smarkets 🇬🇧10.0-10.6%$253,434

12.6%

-0.0%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎13.3-13.4%$686,517,193
Kalshi 🇺🇸9.5-9.6%$36,854,327
Betfair 🇬🇧10.4-10.9%$1,465,522
PredictIt 🇺🇸9.0-11.0%$1,268,161
Smarkets 🇬🇧10.4-12.8%$253,434

11.0%

-0.1%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎8.7-8.8%$686,517,193
Kalshi 🇺🇸10.0-11.0%$36,854,327
Betfair 🇬🇧10.2-11.1%$1,465,522
PredictIt 🇺🇸10.0-11.0%$1,268,161
Smarkets 🇬🇧10.4-11.9%$253,434

10.3%

-0.1%
Ossoff details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎9.2-9.3%$686,517,193
Kalshi 🇺🇸9.9-11.0%$36,854,327
Betfair 🇬🇧7.1-8.0%$1,465,522
PredictIt 🇺🇸9.0-10.0%$1,268,161
Smarkets 🇬🇧6.9-8.0%$253,434

8.8%

0.2%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.8-3.9%$686,517,193
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.2-4.4%$36,854,327
Betfair 🇬🇧2.4-2.8%$1,465,522
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$1,268,161
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.3-2.8%$253,434

3.4%

-0.2%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.4-2.5%$686,517,193
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.5-3.9%$36,854,327
Betfair 🇬🇧2.5-2.9%$1,465,522
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$1,268,161
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.5-2.8%$253,434

3.2%

0.1%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.5-2.6%$686,517,193
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.7-2.8%$36,854,327
Betfair 🇬🇧2.0-2.3%$1,465,522
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$1,268,161
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.2%$253,434

2.8%

+0.0%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.4-1.5%$686,517,193
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.8-4.0%$36,854,327
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-2.5%$1,465,522
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.5%$253,434

2.5%

+0.0%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.3-1.5%$686,517,193
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.9-2.0%$36,854,327
Betfair 🇬🇧2.6-2.8%$1,465,522
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.8%$253,434

2.1%

-0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-1.3%$1,465,522
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.8-1.3%$253,434

1.1%

-0.1%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$686,517,193
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.1-1.2%$36,854,327
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-1.0%$1,465,522
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.0-1.1%$253,434

1.0%

+0.0%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.3-0.4%$686,517,193
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.2-1.5%$36,854,327
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.0%$1,465,522
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$1,268,161
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-1.0%$253,434

0.9%

-0.0%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$686,517,193
Betfair 🇬🇧0.8-1.1%$1,465,522
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.8-1.1%$253,434

0.8%

+0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.5-0.6%$686,517,193
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.1-0.2%$36,854,327
Betfair 🇬🇧0.4-0.6%$1,465,522
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.6%$253,434

0.4%

-0.0%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.6%$1,465,522
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.5%$253,434

0.4%

-0.0%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.5%$1,465,522
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$253,434

0.3%

+0.0%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.4%$1,465,522
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.4%$253,434

0.3%

-0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,465,522
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$253,434

0.3%

+0.0%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,465,522
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$253,434

0.2%

-0.0%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.2-0.3%$686,517,193
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.1-0.2%$36,854,327
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,465,522
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$253,434

0.2%

+0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$1,465,522
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$253,434

0.2%

-0.0%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$1,465,522
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$253,434

0.1%

+0.0%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$1,465,522
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$253,434

0.1%

-0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$1,465,522
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$253,434

0.1%

+0.0%

16.5%

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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