Odds update every minute | Last updated: 12:29AM EDT on May 16, 2026

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

Senate Control 2026Senate Control 2026

$7,334,529 bet so far
REP details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸55.4-56.4%$4,561,150
Polymarket 🌎53.9-54.9%$2,389,729
PredictIt 🇺🇸58.4-59.4%$300,366
Betfair 🇬🇧51.8-52.4%$77,924
Smarkets 🇬🇧49.8-52.1%$5,360

54.5%

0.7%
DEM details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸43.6-44.6%$4,561,150
Polymarket 🌎45.1-46.1%$2,389,729
PredictIt 🇺🇸40.6-41.6%$300,366
Betfair 🇬🇧47.7-48.1%$77,924
Smarkets 🇬🇧47.4-50.8%$5,360

45.5%

-0.7%
Senate Seats 2026 (estimate: 51-49. Hover over states)
Current Senate is 47-53
Polymarket:
Kalshi:
PredictIt:
State election odds update every 20 minutes. Last updated: 12:28AM EDT on May 16, 2026
Over $5 million bet. State betting is from Polymarket, Kalshi and PredictIt. Others to be added if liquid state market available.
US Presidency 2028Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2028

$605,985,362 bet so far
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎18.6-18.7%$582,352,719
Kalshi 🇺🇸18.0-19.0%$21,101,905
Betfair 🇬🇧16.9-17.2%$1,194,282
PredictIt 🇺🇸23.0-25.0%$1,126,993
Smarkets 🇬🇧16.9-17.5%$215,767

19.1%

-0.1%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎16.6-16.7%$582,352,719
Kalshi 🇺🇸15.0-16.0%$21,101,905
Betfair 🇬🇧17.2-18.2%$1,194,282
PredictIt 🇺🇸19.0-20.0%$1,126,993
Smarkets 🇬🇧18.5-18.9%$215,767

17.6%

-0.3%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎14.3-14.4%$582,352,719
Kalshi 🇺🇸18.0-19.0%$21,101,905
Betfair 🇬🇧10.6-10.9%$1,194,282
PredictIt 🇺🇸16.0-17.0%$1,126,993

15.0%

0.1%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.3-5.4%$582,352,719
Kalshi 🇺🇸5.8-5.9%$21,101,905
Betfair 🇬🇧5.4-5.9%$1,194,282
PredictIt 🇺🇸8.0-9.0%$1,126,993
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.4-6.7%$215,767

6.3%

+0.0%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.0-5.2%$582,352,719
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.6-4.8%$21,101,905
Betfair 🇬🇧2.0-2.8%$1,194,282
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$1,126,993
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.8%$215,767

4.0%

-0.0%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧3.3-3.7%$1,194,282
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.3-3.7%$215,767

3.5%

-0.0%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.0-3.1%$582,352,719
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.9-3.1%$21,101,905
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-2.5%$1,194,282
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$1,126,993
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.5%$215,767

3.0%

+0.0%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.2-2.3%$582,352,719
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.8-3.0%$21,101,905
Betfair 🇬🇧2.3-2.8%$1,194,282
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$1,126,993
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.4%$215,767

2.9%

+0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧2.2-3.1%$1,194,282
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.2-3.5%$215,767

2.7%

-0.1%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.6-3.7%$582,352,719
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.9-3.1%$21,101,905
Betfair 🇬🇧1.8-2.3%$1,194,282
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.5-2.0%$215,767

2.6%

+0.0%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.4-1.5%$582,352,719
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.3-1.4%$21,101,905
Betfair 🇬🇧1.2-2.5%$1,194,282
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.2-2.5%$215,767

1.7%

+0.0%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$582,352,719
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.8-0.9%$21,101,905
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-2.3%$1,194,282
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-4.0%$1,126,993
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.3%$215,767

1.6%

-0.2%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.8-1.1%$1,194,282
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-0.9%$215,767

0.9%

-0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.8-0.9%$582,352,719
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.2-0.4%$21,101,905
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.8%$1,194,282
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-0.8%$215,767

0.5%

-0.0%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.7%$1,194,282
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.6%$215,767

0.5%

+0.0%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.6%$1,194,282
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.6%$215,767

0.4%

-0.0%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-0.8%$582,352,719
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.2-0.3%$21,101,905
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$1,194,282
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$215,767

0.4%

-0.0%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.6%$1,194,282
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.4%$215,767

0.3%

+0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,194,282
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$215,767

0.3%

-0.0%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$1,194,282
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$215,767

0.2%

+0.0%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$1,194,282
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$215,767

0.2%

-0.0%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$1,194,282
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$215,767

0.1%

-0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$1,194,282
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$215,767

0.1%

+0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$1,194,282
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$215,767

0.1%

-0.0%

15.8%

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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