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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

Will Supreme Court
allow Trump tariffs?Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Trump's tariffs?

$13,260,426 bet so far
No details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸67.0-68.0%$9,310,566
Polymarket 🌎68.0-69.0%$3,949,874

68.0%

+0.0%
Yes details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸32.0-33.0%$9,310,566
Polymarket 🌎31.0-32.0%$3,949,874

32.0%

+0.0%
Presidency 2028 (by party)Bets on which party will control the Presidency after Nov 5, 2028 elections

$380,237 bet so far
DEM details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸53.0-54.0%$221,256
Betfair 🇬🇧55.2-55.9%$157,062
Smarkets 🇬🇧54.4-56.5%$1,919

54.8%

-0.0%
REP details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸46.0-47.0%$221,256
Betfair 🇬🇧42.7-43.5%$157,062
Smarkets 🇬🇧41.7-44.6%$1,919

44.3%

+0.0%

0.9%
US Presidency 2028Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2028

$248,220,477 bet so far
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸26.0-27.0%$5,952,889
Betfair 🇬🇧21.7-22.7%$954,004
PredictIt 🇺🇸26.0-28.0%$733,204
Smarkets 🇬🇧21.7-22.7%$169,055

24.5%

-0.1%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸19.0-20.0%$5,952,889
Betfair 🇬🇧20.4-20.8%$954,004
PredictIt 🇺🇸24.0-25.0%$733,204
Smarkets 🇬🇧20.4-20.8%$169,055

21.3%

0.3%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸10.0-11.0%$5,952,889
Betfair 🇬🇧7.1-7.7%$954,004
PredictIt 🇺🇸7.0-8.0%$733,204

8.5%

-0.2%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$5,952,889
Betfair 🇬🇧4.3-5.6%$954,004
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.0-7.0%$733,204
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.9-6.5%$169,055

5.8%

-0.0%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$5,952,889
Betfair 🇬🇧2.0-2.6%$954,004
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$733,204
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.2-2.6%$169,055

3.7%

0.3%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$5,952,889
Betfair 🇬🇧2.3-2.6%$954,004
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$733,204
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.6%$169,055

2.9%

-0.1%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$5,952,889
Betfair 🇬🇧1.8-2.3%$954,004
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$733,204
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.8-2.3%$169,055

2.8%

0.1%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$5,952,889
Betfair 🇬🇧1.7-2.3%$954,004
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$733,204
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.5-2.3%$169,055

2.2%

0.3%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.4-2.4%$954,004
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-2.0%$169,055

1.8%

+0.0%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$5,952,889
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-1.8%$954,004
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.8-2.2%$169,055

1.7%

0.2%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$5,952,889
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-1.8%$954,004
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.4-1.7%$169,055

1.5%

0.1%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.2-1.4%$954,004
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.1-1.3%$169,055

1.2%

-0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$5,952,889
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-1.4%$954,004
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.0-1.3%$169,055

0.8%

+0.0%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.7-0.9%$954,004
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.6-0.8%$169,055

0.8%

+0.0%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-0.8%$954,004
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.8%$169,055

0.6%

-0.0%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.6%$954,004
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.6%$169,055

0.4%

-0.0%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.5%$954,004
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.4%$169,055

0.4%

+0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.4%$954,004
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$169,055

0.3%

0.1%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$5,952,889
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$954,004
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.4%$169,055

0.2%

-0.2%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$954,004
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$169,055

0.2%

+0.0%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$954,004
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$169,055

0.2%

+0.0%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$954,004
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$169,055

0.2%

-0.0%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$954,004
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$169,055

0.2%

+0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.1%$954,004
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$169,055

0.1%

-0.0%

17.7%

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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