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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

DEM Nomination 2028Democratic nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2028

$32,147,157 bet so far
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎34.0-35.0%$21,177,690
Kalshi 🇺🇸33.0-34.0%$10,591,623
PredictIt 🇺🇸33.0-34.0%$377,844

33.8%

1.3%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎8.0-9.0%$21,177,690
Kalshi 🇺🇸9.0-10.0%$10,591,623
PredictIt 🇺🇸12.0-13.0%$377,844

10.2%

-0.3%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.0-7.0%$21,177,690
Kalshi 🇺🇸8.0-9.0%$10,591,623
PredictIt 🇺🇸8.0-9.0%$377,844

7.7%

-0.2%
Moore details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.5-5.9%$21,177,690
Kalshi 🇺🇸7.0-8.0%$10,591,623
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.0-7.0%$377,844

6.6%

-0.0%
Beshear details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.0-5.4%$21,177,690
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$10,591,623
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$377,844

5.1%

-0.1%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.8-4.0%$21,177,690
Kalshi 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$10,591,623
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$377,844

5.0%

-0.0%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.0-4.4%$21,177,690
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$10,591,623
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-6.0%$377,844

4.6%

-0.0%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.7-4.9%$21,177,690
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$10,591,623
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$377,844

4.3%

+0.0%
Pritzker details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.6-1.9%$21,177,690
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$10,591,623
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.0-7.0%$377,844

3.6%

-0.2%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.0-1.1%$21,177,690
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$10,591,623

1.3%

-0.0%
Cuban details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-0.9%$21,177,690
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$10,591,623

1.1%

-0.1%
Warnock details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.4-0.6%$21,177,690
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$10,591,623

1.0%

+0.0%
Fetterman details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.0-1.1%$21,177,690
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$10,591,623

0.5%

-0.1%
Walz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.8%$21,177,690
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$10,591,623

0.4%

-0.0%
Cooper details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.5-0.7%$21,177,690
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$10,591,623

0.3%

-0.0%

14.7%
GOP Nomination 2028Republican nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2028

$11,760,440 bet so far
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎53.0-54.0%$8,480,234
Kalshi 🇺🇸54.0-55.0%$3,110,982
PredictIt 🇺🇸56.0-57.0%$171,224

54.8%

1.0%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎9.6-9.8%$8,480,234
Kalshi 🇺🇸7.0-8.0%$3,110,982
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.0-7.0%$171,224

7.9%

-0.4%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.3-3.5%$8,480,234
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$3,110,982
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.0-7.0%$171,224

4.5%

-0.0%
Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.8-4.0%$8,480,234
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$3,110,982
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$171,224

4.3%

-0.0%
Youngkin details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.2-3.4%$8,480,234
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$3,110,982
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$171,224

3.4%

0.3%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.5-2.8%$8,480,234
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$3,110,982

2.6%

-0.6%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.5-0.6%$8,480,234
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$3,110,982
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$171,224

1.5%

-0.0%
Kemp details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.3%$8,480,234
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$3,110,982
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$171,224

1.4%

+0.0%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.1-1.2%$8,480,234
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$3,110,982

1.3%

+0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.0-1.2%$8,480,234
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$3,110,982

1.3%

-0.3%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.1%$8,480,234
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$3,110,982

1.3%

-0.0%
Abbott details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-0.8%$8,480,234
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$3,110,982

1.1%

+0.0%
Stefanik details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.8%$8,480,234
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$3,110,982

1.1%

+0.0%
Gaetz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.5-0.6%$8,480,234
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$3,110,982

1.0%

+0.0%
Donalds details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.5-0.6%$8,480,234
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$3,110,982

1.0%

+0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.5-0.6%$8,480,234
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$3,110,982

1.0%

+0.0%
SHSanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.4-0.5%$8,480,234
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$3,110,982

1.0%

+0.0%
Britt details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.3-0.4%$8,480,234
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$3,110,982

0.9%

+0.0%
Musk details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.4-0.5%$8,480,234
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$3,110,982

0.2%

+0.0%

8.3%
US Presidency 2028Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2028

$15,924,024 bet so far
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎27.0-28.0%$13,923,834
Kalshi 🇺🇸28.0-29.0%$1,131,670
Betfair 🇬🇧26.0-26.3%$586,289
PredictIt 🇺🇸28.0-29.0%$199,808
Smarkets 🇬🇧25.0-27.0%$82,423

27.3%

+0.0%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎18.0-19.0%$13,923,834
Kalshi 🇺🇸19.0-23.0%$1,131,670
Betfair 🇬🇧12.5-12.8%$586,289
PredictIt 🇺🇸24.0-25.0%$199,808
Smarkets 🇬🇧11.6-13.2%$82,423

17.8%

0.7%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.0-6.0%$13,923,834
Kalshi 🇺🇸6.0-7.0%$1,131,670
Betfair 🇬🇧5.4-5.7%$586,289
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.0-7.0%$199,808
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.0-6.3%$82,423

5.9%

-0.2%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.0-5.0%$13,923,834
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$1,131,670
Betfair 🇬🇧3.1-3.8%$586,289
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$199,808
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.3-4.3%$82,423

4.2%

0.3%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.0-5.0%$13,923,834
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$1,131,670
Betfair 🇬🇧2.8-3.1%$586,289
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$199,808

3.6%

+0.0%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.5-3.8%$13,923,834
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$1,131,670
Betfair 🇬🇧2.0-2.2%$586,289
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-5.0%$199,808
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.4%$82,423

2.9%

+0.0%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.8-3.0%$13,923,834
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$1,131,670
Betfair 🇬🇧2.6-3.3%$586,289
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$199,808
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.6-3.5%$82,423

2.8%

+0.0%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.7-2.0%$13,923,834
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$1,131,670
Betfair 🇬🇧2.0-2.3%$586,289
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.2-2.6%$82,423

2.2%

0.2%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧2.0-2.5%$586,289
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.4%$82,423

2.2%

-0.0%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.5-2.6%$13,923,834
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$1,131,670
Betfair 🇬🇧0.7-1.5%$586,289
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$199,808
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.0-1.5%$82,423

2.0%

-0.0%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.4-1.5%$13,923,834
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$1,131,670
Betfair 🇬🇧2.0-2.3%$586,289
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.8-2.6%$82,423

1.8%

-0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$13,923,834
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$1,131,670
Betfair 🇬🇧1.4-2.0%$586,289
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.5-2.2%$82,423

1.1%

+0.0%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.8-1.1%$586,289
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.8-1.3%$82,423

1.0%

+0.0%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-0.9%$586,289
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.6-1.1%$82,423

0.8%

-0.1%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-1.0%$586,289
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.6-1.0%$82,423

0.8%

-0.0%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.6-0.8%$586,289
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.5%$82,423

0.6%

-0.0%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-0.9%$13,923,834
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$1,131,670
Betfair 🇬🇧0.4-0.5%$586,289
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-0.6%$82,423

0.4%

-0.0%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$586,289
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-1.0%$82,423

0.4%

+0.0%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.4%$586,289
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.4%$82,423

0.3%

-0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.4%$586,289
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.4%$82,423

0.3%

+0.0%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$586,289
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.4%$82,423

0.3%

+0.0%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$586,289
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$82,423

0.3%

+0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$586,289
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$82,423

0.2%

-0.1%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$586,289
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$82,423

0.2%

+0.0%

20.6%

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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