Odds update every minute | Last updated: 8:53AM EDT on Apr 27, 2024

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of winning...

US Presidency 2024Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2024

$142,907,949 bet so far
Biden details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎44.0-45.0%$116,731,348
Betfair 🇬🇧42.7-43.1%$18,740,261
PredictIt 🇺🇸50.7-52.7%$4,546,768
Smarkets 🇬🇧43.5-44.3%$2,889,580

45.7%

-0.3%
Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎43.0-44.0%$116,731,348
Betfair 🇬🇧43.9-44.2%$18,740,261
PredictIt 🇺🇸42.9-43.9%$4,546,768
Smarkets 🇬🇧43.5-44.3%$2,889,580

43.7%

0.5%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.0-4.3%$116,731,348
Betfair 🇬🇧3.3-3.6%$18,740,261
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.5-3.6%$2,889,580

3.5%

-0.2%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.8-4.2%$116,731,348
Betfair 🇬🇧2.5-2.8%$18,740,261
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.9%$2,889,580

3.0%

0.1%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.0-1.3%$116,731,348
Betfair 🇬🇧1.2-1.3%$18,740,261
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.9-3.9%$4,546,768
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.2-2.1%$2,889,580

1.9%

+0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.3-0.4%$116,731,348
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-1.3%$18,740,261
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.9-1.5%$2,889,580

0.9%

-0.1%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.4-0.5%$116,731,348
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-1.3%$18,740,261
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.6-1.3%$2,889,580

0.9%

-0.0%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.5-0.6%$116,731,348
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.4%$18,740,261
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$4,546,768
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$2,889,580

0.7%

-0.0%
Electoral College (estimate: 276-262. Hover over states)
270 electoral votes needed to win
State election odds update every 20 minutes. Last updated: 7:33AM EDT on Apr 27, 2024
Over $1M bet. State betting is from Polymarket. Others to be added if liquid state market available
GOP VP NomineeRepublican Vice Presidential Nominee in 2024

$21,151,566 bet so far
TimScott details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎21.0-22.0%$16,957,731
PredictIt 🇺🇸21.0-22.0%$3,457,158
Betfair 🇬🇧19.2-19.6%$660,656
Smarkets 🇬🇧18.2-20.8%$76,028

20.5%

-0.2%
Stefanik details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎8.0-9.0%$16,957,731
PredictIt 🇺🇸14.0-15.0%$3,457,158
Betfair 🇬🇧7.1-8.3%$660,656
Smarkets 🇬🇧6.7-9.5%$76,028

9.7%

2.2%
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.2-6.3%$16,957,731
Betfair 🇬🇧6.1-7.1%$660,656
Smarkets 🇬🇧6.1-8.0%$76,028

6.5%

-0.1%
Carson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.3-5.0%$16,957,731
Betfair 🇬🇧5.6-6.9%$660,656
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.1-7.4%$76,028

5.7%

0.1%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.0-6.0%$16,957,731
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$3,457,158
Betfair 🇬🇧4.5-5.0%$660,656
Smarkets 🇬🇧4.2-5.4%$76,028

4.6%

-0.2%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.7-3.6%$16,957,731
PredictIt 🇺🇸7.0-8.0%$3,457,158
Betfair 🇬🇧1.2-3.8%$660,656
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.1-4.3%$76,028

4.0%

-7.3%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.2-2.6%$16,957,731
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$3,457,158
Betfair 🇬🇧2.2-2.9%$660,656
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.8-3.3%$76,028

3.3%

-0.1%
Donalds details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.4-1.6%$16,957,731
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$3,457,158
Betfair 🇬🇧2.3-2.9%$660,656

2.9%

-0.0%

42.9%

Books we like:
"Give Me A Break"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"The Scout Mindset"
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"Radical"
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"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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