Odds update every minute | Last updated: 9:33AM EST on Feb 21, 2024

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

DEM Nomination 2024Democratic nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2024

$19,563,563 bet so far

Biden details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧69.0-69.4%$8,600,592
PredictIt 🇺🇸73.0-74.0%$5,488,368
Polymarket 🌎77.0-79.0%$4,550,503
Smarkets 🇬🇧69.9-74.1%$924,100

72.6%

-0.3%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧6.9-7.7%$8,600,592
PredictIt 🇺🇸14.0-15.0%$5,488,368
Polymarket 🌎7.0-9.0%$4,550,503
Smarkets 🇬🇧6.5-8.7%$924,100

9.5%

-0.0%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧6.3-6.7%$8,600,592
PredictIt 🇺🇸7.0-8.0%$5,488,368
Polymarket 🌎2.0-4.0%$4,550,503
Smarkets 🇬🇧6.3-7.7%$924,100

6.0%

0.2%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.8-1.2%$8,600,592
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$5,488,368
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-1.0%$924,100

1.9%

+0.0%
Warren details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.8-1.3%$8,600,592
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$5,488,368
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-1.2%$924,100

0.7%

-0.0%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.4%$8,600,592
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$924,100

0.3%

-0.0%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$8,600,592
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$5,488,368
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$924,100

0.1%

+0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.1%$8,600,592
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$924,100

0.1%

+0.0%

8.9%

GOP Nomination 2024GOP Nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2024

$27,235,507 bet so far

Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
PredictIt 🇺🇸87.0-89.0%$12,804,304
Betfair 🇬🇧89.3-90.9%$7,249,793
Polymarket 🌎86.8-88.7%$6,247,599
Smarkets 🇬🇧90.1-92.6%$933,811

88.6%

-0.4%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$12,804,304
Betfair 🇬🇧4.5-5.0%$7,249,793
Polymarket 🌎3.8-5.7%$6,247,599
Smarkets 🇬🇧4.5-5.0%$933,811

5.1%

+0.0%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$12,804,304
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-1.1%$7,249,793
Polymarket 🌎6.6-8.5%$6,247,599
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.6-1.3%$933,811

2.7%

+0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-0.8%$7,249,793
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$933,811

0.4%

+0.0%
TimScott details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$12,804,304
Betfair 🇬🇧0.0-1.4%$7,249,793
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$933,811

0.3%

-0.0%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$12,804,304
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.5%$7,249,793
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$933,811

0.1%

+0.0%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
PredictIt 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$12,804,304
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$7,249,793
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$933,811

0.1%

+0.0%
Crenshaw details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.2%$933,811

0.1%

+0.0%

2.6%

US Presidency 2024Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2024

$67,859,050 bet so far

Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎54.0-56.0%$47,350,543
Betfair 🇬🇧43.5-43.9%$13,946,986
PredictIt 🇺🇸45.0-46.0%$4,028,957
Smarkets 🇬🇧43.1-44.6%$2,532,575

51.7%

+0.0%
Biden details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎31.0-33.0%$47,350,543
Betfair 🇬🇧27.4-27.8%$13,946,986
PredictIt 🇺🇸40.0-41.0%$4,028,957
Smarkets 🇬🇧28.2-29.4%$2,532,575

31.5%

-0.1%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.0-6.0%$47,350,543
Betfair 🇬🇧7.1-7.4%$13,946,986
Smarkets 🇬🇧6.9-7.4%$2,532,575

5.6%

-0.0%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.0-3.0%$47,350,543
Betfair 🇬🇧4.5-5.0%$13,946,986
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.6-5.0%$2,532,575

2.7%

+0.0%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.0-2.0%$47,350,543
Betfair 🇬🇧3.4-3.7%$13,946,986
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$4,028,957
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.6-4.0%$2,532,575

1.9%

+0.0%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.0-2.0%$47,350,543
Betfair 🇬🇧2.8-3.1%$13,946,986
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.9%$2,532,575

1.5%

+0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.0-1.0%$47,350,543
Betfair 🇬🇧3.4-3.6%$13,946,986
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.9-3.6%$2,532,575

1.3%

0.1%
Warren details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.0-0.0%$47,350,543
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-0.7%$13,946,986
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.8%$2,532,575

0.2%

-0.0%

3.7%


Books we like:

"Give Me A Break"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"The Scout Mindset"
By Julia Galef
"Radical"
By Maajid Nawaz
"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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