Odds update every minute | Last updated: 3:27AM EDT on Apr 26, 2024

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of winning...

US Presidency 2024Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2024

$142,445,175 bet so far
Biden details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎44.0-45.0%$116,278,942
Betfair 🇬🇧42.7-43.1%$18,733,362
PredictIt 🇺🇸51.7-52.7%$4,546,751
Smarkets 🇬🇧44.6-45.0%$2,886,120

46.1%

0.1%
Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎42.0-43.0%$116,278,942
Betfair 🇬🇧43.9-44.2%$18,733,362
PredictIt 🇺🇸42.0-43.9%$4,546,751
Smarkets 🇬🇧43.5-44.3%$2,886,120

43.3%

-0.0%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.1-4.5%$116,278,942
Betfair 🇬🇧3.4-3.6%$18,733,362
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.8-3.3%$2,886,120

3.6%

+0.0%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.8-3.5%$116,278,942
Betfair 🇬🇧2.5-2.6%$18,733,362
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-3.1%$2,886,120

2.8%

-0.0%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$116,278,942
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-1.3%$18,733,362
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.9-3.9%$4,546,751
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-2.1%$2,886,120

1.8%

0.1%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.3-0.4%$116,278,942
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-1.5%$18,733,362
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.0-1.4%$2,886,120

1.0%

0.1%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.4-0.5%$116,278,942
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-1.4%$18,733,362
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-1.3%$2,886,120

0.9%

-0.0%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.5-0.6%$116,278,942
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.5%$18,733,362
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$4,546,751
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$2,886,120

0.7%

-0.0%
Electoral College (estimate: 276-262. Hover over states)
270 electoral votes needed to win
State election odds update every 20 minutes. Last updated: 3:00AM EDT on Apr 26, 2024
Over $1M bet. State betting is from Polymarket. Others to be added if liquid state market available
GOP VP NomineeRepublican Vice Presidential Nominee in 2024

$20,633,412 bet so far
TimScott details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎21.0-22.0%$16,471,717
PredictIt 🇺🇸21.0-23.0%$3,429,229
Betfair 🇬🇧19.2-20.4%$657,184
Smarkets 🇬🇧18.2-21.3%$75,282

20.8%

0.1%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎9.0-10.0%$16,471,717
PredictIt 🇺🇸18.0-19.0%$3,429,229
Betfair 🇬🇧8.0-9.1%$657,184
Smarkets 🇬🇧7.1-10.2%$75,282

11.3%

-0.1%
Stefanik details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎6.0-7.0%$16,471,717
PredictIt 🇺🇸11.0-12.0%$3,429,229
Betfair 🇬🇧5.7-6.3%$657,184
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.4-6.9%$75,282

7.5%

+0.0%
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.2-6.3%$16,471,717
Betfair 🇬🇧6.7-7.1%$657,184
Smarkets 🇬🇧6.1-8.0%$75,282

6.6%

-0.0%
Carson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.3-5.1%$16,471,717
Betfair 🇬🇧6.5-6.9%$657,184
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.1-7.4%$75,282

5.9%

0.2%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.0-6.0%$16,471,717
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-5.0%$3,429,229
Betfair 🇬🇧4.5-5.0%$657,184
Smarkets 🇬🇧4.0-5.4%$75,282

4.7%

-0.1%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.8-3.0%$16,471,717
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$3,429,229
Betfair 🇬🇧2.2-2.9%$657,184
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.3-3.5%$75,282

3.5%

0.2%
Donalds details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.5-1.6%$16,471,717
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$3,429,229
Betfair 🇬🇧2.4-2.8%$657,184

2.9%

-0.0%

36.9%

Books we like:
"Give Me A Break"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"The Scout Mindset"
By Julia Galef
"Radical"
By Maajid Nawaz
"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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