Odds update every minute | Last updated: 7:23PM EDT on Jun 21, 2024

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of winning...

US Presidency 2024Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2024

$212,050,565 bet so far

Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎55.7-56.7%$178,335,359
Betfair 🇬🇧54.1-54.3%$25,165,744
PredictIt 🇺🇸49.3-51.2%$5,215,367
Smarkets 🇬🇧54.4-56.2%$3,334,125

54.0%

-0.8%
Biden details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎32.8-33.8%$178,335,359
Betfair 🇬🇧33.3-33.6%$25,165,744
PredictIt 🇺🇸44.4-45.4%$5,215,367
Smarkets 🇬🇧33.8-34.7%$3,334,125

36.5%

1.5%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.0-3.5%$178,335,359
Betfair 🇬🇧3.1-3.3%$25,165,744
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.8-3.6%$3,334,125

3.2%

-0.5%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.8-3.3%$178,335,359
Betfair 🇬🇧2.6-2.8%$25,165,744
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-3.1%$3,334,125

2.8%

-0.1%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.8-2.3%$178,335,359
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-1.3%$25,165,744
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.9-3.9%$5,215,367
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-1.7%$3,334,125

2.0%

0.1%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.4-1.5%$178,335,359
Betfair 🇬🇧1.1-1.2%$25,165,744
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.9-1.3%$3,334,125

1.2%

-0.0%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.2-0.3%$178,335,359
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$25,165,744
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-1.9%$5,215,367
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$3,334,125

0.5%

-0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.2-0.3%$178,335,359
Betfair 🇬🇧0.4-0.5%$25,165,744
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-0.6%$3,334,125

0.4%

-0.0%
Electoral Votes 2024 (estimate: 270-268. Hover over states)
270 electoral votes needed to win
State election odds update every 20 minutes. Last updated: 6:58PM EDT on Jun 21, 2024
Over $1 million bet. State betting is from Polymarket. Others to be added if liquid state market available.
GOP VP NomineeRepublican Vice Presidential Nominee in 2024

$47,780,762 bet so far

Burgum details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
PredictIt 🇺🇸31.0-32.0%$5,778,352
Betfair 🇬🇧21.7-27.0%$1,034,258

27.9%

2.3%
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎10.1-10.9%$40,836,962
Betfair 🇬🇧11.4-14.3%$1,034,258
Smarkets 🇬🇧11.1-16.1%$131,513

12.3%

1.1%
Carson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎13.6-13.9%$40,836,962
Betfair 🇬🇧6.5-10.0%$1,034,258
Smarkets 🇬🇧6.7-10.4%$131,513

10.2%

-3.1%
Donalds details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎13.2-15.7%$40,836,962
PredictIt 🇺🇸8.0-9.0%$5,778,352
Betfair 🇬🇧5.9-7.1%$1,034,258

9.8%

1.4%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎8.3-10.3%$40,836,962
PredictIt 🇺🇸9.0-10.0%$5,778,352
Betfair 🇬🇧6.5-7.7%$1,034,258

8.6%

-0.7%
TimScott details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎6.0-7.0%$40,836,962
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.0-8.0%$5,778,352
Betfair 🇬🇧7.7-9.1%$1,034,258
Smarkets 🇬🇧6.9-10.2%$131,513

7.6%

-0.7%
SHSanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎7.0-7.6%$40,836,962
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$5,778,352
Betfair 🇬🇧5.9-6.9%$1,034,258
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.4-7.1%$131,513

6.4%

-0.4%
Stefanik details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.5-4.9%$40,836,962
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-6.0%$5,778,352
Betfair 🇬🇧1.5-2.9%$1,034,258
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-3.5%$131,513

3.4%

-0.1%
Youngkin details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$5,778,352
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-2.3%$1,034,258
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.2-2.4%$131,513

3.0%

0.9%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-0.8%$40,836,962
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$5,778,352
Betfair 🇬🇧2.0-4.5%$1,034,258
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.3-5.1%$131,513

2.6%

+0.0%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.1-1.7%$40,836,962
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-4.0%$5,778,352
Betfair 🇬🇧0.4-1.7%$1,034,258
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-2.0%$131,513

1.7%

-0.2%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.0-1.2%$40,836,962
Betfair 🇬🇧1.0-1.2%$1,034,258

1.1%

-0.2%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$5,778,352
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-1.3%$1,034,258
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-1.5%$131,513

1.1%

-0.4%

4.3%


Books we like:

"Give Me A Break"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"The Scout Mindset"
By Julia Galef
"Radical"
By Maajid Nawaz
"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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