Odds update every minute | Last updated: 3:57AM EDT on May 28, 2024

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of winning...

US Presidency 2024Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2024

$168,774,679 bet so far
Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎55.3-56.3%$138,929,040
Betfair 🇬🇧52.6-52.9%$21,834,874
PredictIt 🇺🇸50.5-51.5%$4,860,005
Smarkets 🇬🇧52.9-53.8%$3,150,760

53.2%

0.1%
Biden details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎35.6-36.5%$138,929,040
Betfair 🇬🇧35.2-35.5%$21,834,874
PredictIt 🇺🇸43.6-44.6%$4,860,005
Smarkets 🇬🇧35.0-36.8%$3,150,760

37.8%

-0.5%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.4-3.2%$138,929,040
Betfair 🇬🇧2.8-2.9%$21,834,874
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.7-2.8%$3,150,760

2.6%

0.1%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.2-2.5%$138,929,040
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-2.3%$21,834,874
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.8-2.4%$3,150,760

2.2%

-0.1%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.3%$138,929,040
Betfair 🇬🇧1.0-1.1%$21,834,874
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$4,860,005
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.1-1.7%$3,150,760

1.7%

+0.0%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-1.1%$138,929,040
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-1.4%$21,834,874
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-1.7%$3,150,760

1.2%

0.1%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.4-0.6%$138,929,040
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$21,834,874
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$4,860,005
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$3,150,760

0.6%

-0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.2-0.4%$138,929,040
Betfair 🇬🇧0.7-0.9%$21,834,874
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.6-0.8%$3,150,760

0.6%

+0.0%
Electoral Votes 2024 (estimate: 270-268. Hover over states)
270 electoral votes needed to win
State election odds update every 20 minutes. Last updated: 3:28AM EDT on May 28, 2024
Over $1 million bet. State betting is from Polymarket. Others to be added if liquid state market available.
GOP VP NomineeRepublican Vice Presidential Nominee in 2024

$32,703,516 bet so far
TimScott details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎25.0-28.0%$27,322,261
PredictIt 🇺🇸23.0-24.0%$4,440,322
Betfair 🇬🇧17.9-18.9%$846,251
Smarkets 🇬🇧16.9-18.2%$98,712

21.5%

1.0%
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎8.3-9.6%$27,322,261
Betfair 🇬🇧8.3-9.5%$846,251
Smarkets 🇬🇧8.3-10.4%$98,712

9.1%

-0.4%
Carson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.4-6.8%$27,322,261
Betfair 🇬🇧5.9-7.7%$846,251
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.7-7.4%$98,712

6.5%

0.6%
Stefanik details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.1-4.9%$27,322,261
PredictIt 🇺🇸8.0-9.0%$4,440,322
Betfair 🇬🇧4.8-5.3%$846,251
Smarkets 🇬🇧4.2-5.7%$98,712

5.6%

-0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.6-6.0%$27,322,261
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.0-7.0%$4,440,322
Betfair 🇬🇧4.2-5.0%$846,251
Smarkets 🇬🇧3.7-5.0%$98,712

4.9%

0.2%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.2-5.1%$27,322,261
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.0-7.0%$4,440,322
Betfair 🇬🇧1.5-4.0%$846,251
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.8-2.5%$98,712

3.9%

+0.0%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.0-1.4%$27,322,261
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$4,440,322
Betfair 🇬🇧0.9-1.3%$846,251
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.0-1.7%$98,712

1.8%

-0.0%
Donalds details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.2-2.6%$27,322,261
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$4,440,322
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.5%$846,251

1.7%

-0.2%

45.0%

Books we like:
"Give Me A Break"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"The Scout Mindset"
By Julia Galef
"Radical"
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"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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