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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

DEM Nomination 2028Democratic nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2028

$41,873,200 bet so far
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎35.0-36.0%$30,586,021
Kalshi 🇺🇸32.0-33.0%$10,838,182
PredictIt 🇺🇸31.0-32.0%$449,166

33.2%

0.3%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎7.0-8.0%$30,586,021
Kalshi 🇺🇸9.0-10.0%$10,838,182
PredictIt 🇺🇸12.0-13.0%$449,166

9.8%

-0.3%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.0-6.0%$30,586,021
Kalshi 🇺🇸8.0-9.0%$10,838,182
PredictIt 🇺🇸8.0-9.0%$449,166

7.5%

+0.0%
Moore details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.4-5.6%$30,586,021
Kalshi 🇺🇸6.0-7.0%$10,838,182
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$449,166

5.8%

-0.2%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.0-4.6%$30,586,021
Kalshi 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$10,838,182
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$449,166

4.8%

0.2%
Beshear details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.0-4.1%$30,586,021
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$10,838,182
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$449,166

4.7%

+0.0%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.1-4.3%$30,586,021
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$10,838,182
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-6.0%$449,166

4.6%

-0.0%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.7-3.9%$30,586,021
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$10,838,182
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$449,166

3.9%

0.2%
Pritzker details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.5-1.6%$30,586,021
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$10,838,182
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$449,166

3.2%

-0.3%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.8-0.9%$30,586,021
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$10,838,182

1.2%

-0.0%
Cuban details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-0.8%$30,586,021
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$10,838,182

1.1%

+0.0%
Warnock details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$30,586,021
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$10,838,182

1.1%

0.1%
Fetterman details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.0-1.1%$30,586,021
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$10,838,182

0.5%

-0.0%
Cooper details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$30,586,021
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$10,838,182

0.3%

+0.0%
Walz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.5-0.6%$30,586,021
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$10,838,182

0.3%

+0.0%

18.0%
GOP Nomination 2028Republican nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2028

$15,850,502 bet so far
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎51.0-52.0%$12,360,143
Kalshi 🇺🇸52.0-54.0%$3,289,225
PredictIt 🇺🇸53.0-54.0%$202,399

52.7%

-0.0%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎8.1-8.4%$12,360,143
Kalshi 🇺🇸6.0-7.0%$3,289,225
PredictIt 🇺🇸7.0-8.0%$202,399

7.4%

+0.0%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.5-3.6%$12,360,143
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$3,289,225
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.0-7.0%$202,399

4.5%

-0.2%
Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.1-4.4%$12,360,143
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$3,289,225
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$202,399

4.4%

+0.0%
Youngkin details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎3.1-3.3%$12,360,143
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$3,289,225
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$202,399

3.7%

+0.0%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.8-3.0%$12,360,143
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$3,289,225

2.7%

+0.0%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.5-1.8%$12,360,143
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$3,289,225

1.6%

-0.0%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$12,360,143
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$3,289,225
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$202,399

1.6%

+0.0%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.1-1.3%$12,360,143
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$3,289,225

1.4%

+0.0%
Kemp details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.2%$12,360,143
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$3,289,225
PredictIt 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$202,399

1.3%

+0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.8-1.0%$12,360,143
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$3,289,225

1.2%

+0.0%
SHSanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$12,360,143
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$3,289,225

1.1%

+0.0%
Donalds details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$12,360,143
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$3,289,225

1.1%

+0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$12,360,143
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$3,289,225

1.1%

+0.0%
Stefanik details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.5-0.7%$12,360,143
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$3,289,225

1.0%

-0.0%
Abbott details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.5-0.6%$12,360,143
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$3,289,225

1.0%

+0.0%
Gaetz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.5-0.6%$12,360,143
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$3,289,225

1.0%

+0.0%
Britt details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.5-0.6%$12,360,143
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$3,289,225

1.0%

+0.0%
Musk details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.4-0.5%$12,360,143
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$3,289,225

0.2%

+0.0%

9.9%
US Presidency 2028Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2028

$19,311,081 bet so far
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎26.0-27.0%$17,059,353
Kalshi 🇺🇸29.0-31.0%$1,301,084
Betfair 🇬🇧26.7-27.4%$621,408
PredictIt 🇺🇸29.0-31.0%$236,797
Smarkets 🇬🇧26.3-27.4%$92,465

28.1%

-0.1%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎21.0-22.0%$17,059,353
Kalshi 🇺🇸21.0-23.0%$1,301,084
Betfair 🇬🇧13.5-15.6%$621,408
PredictIt 🇺🇸23.0-24.0%$236,797
Smarkets 🇬🇧12.5-15.6%$92,465

19.1%

0.2%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.0-5.0%$17,059,353
Kalshi 🇺🇸6.0-7.0%$1,301,084
Betfair 🇬🇧4.3-5.1%$621,408
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$236,797
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.3-5.4%$92,465

5.3%

-0.0%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.0-5.0%$17,059,353
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$1,301,084
Betfair 🇬🇧2.4-2.8%$621,408
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$236,797

4.0%

-0.0%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.5-2.8%$17,059,353
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$1,301,084
Betfair 🇬🇧2.6-2.9%$621,408
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$236,797
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.3-3.5%$92,465

3.3%

-0.0%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.2-2.6%$17,059,353
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$1,301,084
Betfair 🇬🇧2.0-2.2%$621,408
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-5.0%$236,797
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.2%$92,465

2.6%

-0.0%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.8-1.9%$17,059,353
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$1,301,084
Betfair 🇬🇧2.5-2.9%$621,408
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$236,797
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.4-2.6%$92,465

2.4%

-0.0%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧2.3-2.5%$621,408
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.4%$92,465

2.3%

-0.0%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.7-1.8%$17,059,353
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-3.0%$1,301,084
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-2.4%$621,408
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.5%$92,465

2.1%

0.1%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.3-2.4%$17,059,353
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$1,301,084
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-1.3%$621,408
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$236,797
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.8-1.5%$92,465

1.9%

-0.0%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.3-1.4%$17,059,353
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$1,301,084
Betfair 🇬🇧2.0-2.2%$621,408
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.8-2.5%$92,465

1.8%

+0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.8-1.0%$17,059,353
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$1,301,084
Betfair 🇬🇧1.4-1.8%$621,408
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.5-2.0%$92,465

1.1%

+0.0%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-1.1%$621,408
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.8-1.3%$92,465

0.9%

-0.0%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.5-1.0%$621,408
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-1.1%$92,465

0.8%

+0.0%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.9%$621,408
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-1.0%$92,465

0.7%

-0.1%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.6-0.8%$621,408
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.6%$92,465

0.6%

+0.0%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-0.8%$17,059,353
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$1,301,084
Betfair 🇬🇧0.4-0.5%$621,408
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-0.6%$92,465

0.4%

-0.0%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$621,408
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-1.0%$92,465

0.4%

-0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.5%$621,408
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.5%$92,465

0.4%

+0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.5%$621,408
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$92,465

0.3%

+0.0%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.4%$621,408
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.0-0.3%$92,465

0.3%

+0.0%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$621,408
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$92,465

0.2%

-0.0%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$621,408
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$92,465

0.2%

-0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$621,408
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$92,465

0.2%

-0.0%

20.8%

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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