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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

Will US Government shutdown
last beyond Nov 15?Will the US Government shutdown last beyond Nov 15?

$13,149,124 bet so far
No details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎59.7-59.8%$9,296,258
Kalshi 🇺🇸47.0-48.0%$3,854,092

53.6%

14.2%
Yes details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎40.2-40.3%$9,296,258
Kalshi 🇺🇸52.0-53.0%$3,854,092

46.4%

-14.2%
Will Supreme Court
allow Trump tariffs?Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Trump's tariffs?

$2,226,220 bet so far
No details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸71.0-72.0%$1,450,530
Polymarket 🌎74.0-75.0%$775,776

73.0%

-2.5%
Yes details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Kalshi 🇺🇸28.0-29.0%$1,450,530
Polymarket 🌎25.0-26.0%$775,776

27.0%

2.5%
US Presidency 2028Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2028

$114,895,921 bet so far
Vance details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎28.0-29.0%$111,579,693
Kalshi 🇺🇸31.0-32.0%$2,130,400
Betfair 🇬🇧25.6-26.7%$681,284
PredictIt 🇺🇸28.0-29.0%$386,809
Smarkets 🇬🇧26.7-27.8%$117,744

28.4%

-0.4%
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎20.0-21.0%$111,579,693
Kalshi 🇺🇸21.0-22.0%$2,130,400
Betfair 🇬🇧16.7-16.9%$681,284
PredictIt 🇺🇸24.0-26.0%$386,809
Smarkets 🇬🇧15.2-17.2%$117,744

20.0%

-0.2%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎8.0-9.0%$111,579,693
Kalshi 🇺🇸6.0-7.0%$2,130,400
Betfair 🇬🇧6.5-8.0%$681,284
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.0-8.0%$386,809
Smarkets 🇬🇧6.1-7.7%$117,744

7.2%

0.1%
Rubio details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.0-5.3%$111,579,693
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.0-5.0%$2,130,400
Betfair 🇬🇧2.9-4.0%$681,284
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$386,809

4.5%

0.1%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.7-2.8%$111,579,693
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$2,130,400
Betfair 🇬🇧1.8-2.6%$681,284
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$386,809
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.2-2.5%$117,744

3.1%

+0.0%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.8-1.9%$111,579,693
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$2,130,400
Betfair 🇬🇧2.2-2.6%$681,284
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$386,809
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.5%$117,744

2.5%

+0.0%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.9-2.0%$111,579,693
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.0-4.0%$2,130,400
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-1.8%$681,284
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$386,809
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-2.0%$117,744

2.3%

0.1%
I_Trump details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧1.5-2.2%$681,284
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.0-2.2%$117,744

2.0%

-0.0%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.8-0.9%$111,579,693
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$2,130,400
Betfair 🇬🇧0.8-1.5%$681,284
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$386,809
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.3-1.8%$117,744

1.7%

0.1%
Trump_Jr details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-0.8%$111,579,693
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$2,130,400
Betfair 🇬🇧2.0-2.5%$681,284
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.5-2.5%$117,744

1.6%

+0.0%
DeSantis details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.2-1.3%$111,579,693
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.0-2.0%$2,130,400
Betfair 🇬🇧1.4-2.0%$681,284
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.4-2.0%$117,744

1.5%

+0.0%
Carlson details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.8-1.4%$681,284
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.7-1.8%$117,744

1.2%

0.2%
Cotton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.6-1.3%$681,284
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.6%$117,744

0.7%

+0.0%
Haley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$111,579,693
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$2,130,400
Betfair 🇬🇧0.8-1.4%$681,284
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.0-1.3%$117,744

0.7%

-0.0%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.7-0.8%$681,284
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.6-0.7%$117,744

0.7%

+0.0%
Kennedy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-1.0%$681,284
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.5-0.8%$117,744

0.6%

+0.0%
Cruz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.3-0.8%$681,284
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.3-0.5%$117,744

0.5%

0.1%
Ramaswamy details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$111,579,693
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.0-1.0%$2,130,400
Betfair 🇬🇧0.4-0.7%$681,284
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.4-0.4%$117,744

0.5%

+0.0%
Noem details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-1.2%$681,284
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$117,744

0.4%

+0.0%
Hawley details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-0.5%$681,284
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.4%$117,744

0.3%

-0.0%
Sanders details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$681,284
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$117,744

0.3%

+0.0%
Clinton details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$681,284
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.2-0.3%$117,744

0.2%

+0.0%
Cuomo details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$681,284
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.4%$117,744

0.2%

+0.0%
Pence details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-0.3%$681,284
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-0.2%$117,744

0.2%

-0.0%

18.6%

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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